I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.
I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.
In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.
My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.
Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.
Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.
Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream
Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old
#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy
Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old
#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday
Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old
#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen
Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up
#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade
Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings
Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old
#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger
Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races
#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China
See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis
Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster
Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds
#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side
Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel
1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3
Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet
Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward
#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate
Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.
#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty
Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge
That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races
Showing posts with label Horseplayer's Association of North America. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Horseplayer's Association of North America. Show all posts
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Post Race Analysis for May 23
Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
And The Winner Is
Not me. Unless you get to count now sitting comfortably at home sipping on a nice glass of Buffalo Trace on the rocks.
I warned you about my feelings on the Hawthorne race 6, so if you followed my advice on that one, I take no responsibility. If it were not a HANA Pool Race I would have passed it altogether.
Had the trifecta cold in the 7th race at Calder, not that you would've gotten rich out of a 5 horse race. Actually the race was a pass with no overlays although I did play $2 on the winner in my ADW account so as to avoid paying for the Form today. That's one way to get better than 4 to 5 on a legitimate favorite.
The 8th race was the most frustrating for me. If you read my earlier post, and are actually foolish enough to take my advice, you would've played the #6 horse Annabill at a nice 3-1 price. Not a bomb, but you need these low priced overlays too. However, I was there and saw Annabill in the paddock. Annabill had her ears pinned back, was shaking, and sweating heavily. Normally, if I can get 3-1 on a horse I make 6-5, I'm all over it. In this case, I took Annabill out of play. Had I been playing the home game, I'd have never seen this and played my top choice and cashed a nice wager. Perhaps, next time, if I'm on the premises, I'll just pass the race.
The 9th race should've been a pass with no overlays, and had I been playing the home game I'd have known that. But after making my wager with 1 MTP, #10 Baron Von Tap dropped from 9-1 to 8-1 on the 0 MTP click. What can you do? Again, playing the home game I don't have to hit the submit button until I see the 0 MTP click and could have passed the race. As it was, I didn't have the eventual winner as a contender so I kind of whiffed on that one even though my 2nd choice finished 2nd and the Baron finished 4th, so I didn't totally miss. More like a foul ball.
At least for the 10th race, I was on the right track even if it was the wrong train. Finallymadeit went 5 wide into the first turn. Didn't make the lead and finished up the track and Dream Maestro did, indeed, turn the tables on Finallymadeit. Hopefully, now Javier Negrete will give Finallymadeit the rest he well deserves. Unfortunately for Dream Maestro, Motovato was the best today. I was on the #1 Hey Bryn who wound up at 5-1 and finished 3rd. Hey Bryn tried hard but was no match for the top two today. I don't mind losing this way, at least I had the right contenders, if I stay this close, I'll get my share...and yours too.
May the horse be with you.
I warned you about my feelings on the Hawthorne race 6, so if you followed my advice on that one, I take no responsibility. If it were not a HANA Pool Race I would have passed it altogether.
Had the trifecta cold in the 7th race at Calder, not that you would've gotten rich out of a 5 horse race. Actually the race was a pass with no overlays although I did play $2 on the winner in my ADW account so as to avoid paying for the Form today. That's one way to get better than 4 to 5 on a legitimate favorite.
The 8th race was the most frustrating for me. If you read my earlier post, and are actually foolish enough to take my advice, you would've played the #6 horse Annabill at a nice 3-1 price. Not a bomb, but you need these low priced overlays too. However, I was there and saw Annabill in the paddock. Annabill had her ears pinned back, was shaking, and sweating heavily. Normally, if I can get 3-1 on a horse I make 6-5, I'm all over it. In this case, I took Annabill out of play. Had I been playing the home game, I'd have never seen this and played my top choice and cashed a nice wager. Perhaps, next time, if I'm on the premises, I'll just pass the race.
The 9th race should've been a pass with no overlays, and had I been playing the home game I'd have known that. But after making my wager with 1 MTP, #10 Baron Von Tap dropped from 9-1 to 8-1 on the 0 MTP click. What can you do? Again, playing the home game I don't have to hit the submit button until I see the 0 MTP click and could have passed the race. As it was, I didn't have the eventual winner as a contender so I kind of whiffed on that one even though my 2nd choice finished 2nd and the Baron finished 4th, so I didn't totally miss. More like a foul ball.
At least for the 10th race, I was on the right track even if it was the wrong train. Finallymadeit went 5 wide into the first turn. Didn't make the lead and finished up the track and Dream Maestro did, indeed, turn the tables on Finallymadeit. Hopefully, now Javier Negrete will give Finallymadeit the rest he well deserves. Unfortunately for Dream Maestro, Motovato was the best today. I was on the #1 Hey Bryn who wound up at 5-1 and finished 3rd. Hey Bryn tried hard but was no match for the top two today. I don't mind losing this way, at least I had the right contenders, if I stay this close, I'll get my share...and yours too.
May the horse be with you.
Some Saturday Picks
No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Felonius Wagering
This comes under the category of learning something new every day. I've just learned today that the HANA race of the week is Saturday, Race 6 at Hawthorne through the following letter.
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
Sunday, March 29, 2009
It's Quality Road!
Quality Road managed to hold off Dunkirk in the strectch as well as an objection from Kent Desormeaux, the rider of Theregoesjojo, and Garrett Gomez on Dunkirk proving to be the best while setting a course record in the Florida Derby.
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Friday, March 27, 2009
Florida Derby Eve
Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
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