Wet weather will be the order of the day for Saratoga Springs. After last weeks poor showing by yours truly, that's all I need is for the rain to wreak havoc on my selections this week.
If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.
On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.
The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.
No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.
Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.
The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout
Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????
The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.
Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.
This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com
I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.
The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note
The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.
Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.
Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.
Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.
The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.
Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds
8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings
And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.
The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.
The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.
6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.
The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me
6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road
That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.
Good luck.
Showing posts with label Quality Road. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quality Road. Show all posts
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
It's Quality Road!
Quality Road managed to hold off Dunkirk in the strectch as well as an objection from Kent Desormeaux, the rider of Theregoesjojo, and Garrett Gomez on Dunkirk proving to be the best while setting a course record in the Florida Derby.
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Friday, March 27, 2009
Florida Derby Eve
Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Florida Derby Week
The Florida Derby is Saturday and the weather is expected to windy but dry and maybe a little on the warm side. I suppose it will be no surprise to reveal that most of the attention in the 9 horse field will be on Quality Road, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk. Pletcher has also entered as an uncoupled entry the winless in one attempt Europe. Doubtless Europe is there to be offered as the sacrificial horse to ensure the late running Dunkirk has an honest pace to run at.
In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.
Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.
I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.
Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.
That's all for now
In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.
Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.
I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.
Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.
That's all for now
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