Ah yes, back once again for another excercise in public humiliation known as The Chalk Eating Weasel Report.
To briefly recap last week. The Report managed to improve a little on the previous week coming up with a straight winner in the Traver's Stakes with Summer Bird. Capt. Candyman Can and Music Note also managed to flatter the Weasel. The Captain, in particular, running a gutsy race to gain a well deserved win via the DQ.
The Ballston Spa nearly caused me to fall out of my seat with the winner Salve Germania. I wanted to include Salve Germania as the 4th contender, I really did. Although an Irish bred, Salve Germania has German breeding on the Dam side. I have been reporting on how the importance of the stamina element represented by German breds is being recognized on the Continent. Probably the first Lasix didn't hurt. My gut said, "Contender.", but my mind looked at a seemingly lack luster past performance and said, "No." Oh what a coup that would've been.
The Ballston goes to show that it's the ones that get away that hurt. Anyone could've come up with the winners of the other three races. No great feat there. But Salve Germania! It will be awhile before you get a price like that on her again.
Now to this week's Public Handicapper races. Today I will give analysis and selections for 3 of the 4 races. The Pacific Classic is tomorrow, so I will post that one later. As a special bonus, I'll take a look at the Woodward as well (pssst hint, hint, Rachel looks really good here).
Just a note here. I have been using the Daily Racing Form's Formulator for this weeks races. There are some things I like about the Formulator and some things I don't care for so much. Sounds like a bonus edition of The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is in the offing some time in the future.
The first race is the 70k Peerless Springs from Saratoga. The Peerless Springs in One Mile on the old sod for 3 year old, New York bred, fillies.
There are 10 horses entered in this race, but, honestly, there are 3 horses where I just have to ask myself why they have been placed in such an ambitious spot. Since all 3 are owned by private individuals, I just have to conclude that it may be a bit of an ego thing with these owners wanting to see their horses running at The Spa. The three tosses are Eager Emma, Elegant Bass, and Freedom Rings. If one of these wins, then it won't be the first time I've had egg on my face.
The top choice for this race is the 7-2 morning line favorite #4 Our Golden Dream. In her last race, OGD finished 4th 2 lengths behind Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Maram and had a troubled trip to boot being checked at the half mile pole and steadied along the rail on the turn. Ascending Beyer's figures for the last 4 races indicate this is a 3 year old filly who is getting it. Favorite or not, this looks like the one to beat in this race.
The 2nd choice is #8 Soave at 5-1 in the morning line. Soave won a 30k Optional Claimer for non winners of 2 last out and now looks to step up her game. Kent Desormeaux has the reins. Soave is coming 3rd off a layoff into a stakes race. Trainer Thomas Bush is 28% (=5/2) with a positive ROI under these conditions. Hmm...3rd off layoff into a stakes race...actually sounds like a plan to me. At anything = or > than 4-1 Soave looks like a tasty choice to The Weasel.
The 3rd choice is the lone front-running speed in the race is the #7 Mother Russia. I can't tell you how much money I've lost betting against Linda Rice this season. Well, actually I can but I'm not going to. Last race out, Mother Russia wired the field at this distance and appears to be the only candidate that is capable of that feat again. Ramon Dominguez has ridden this horse 3 times and has won 3 times. Mother Russia is 4-1 in the morning line.
If you are looking for a long-shot try than the #2 Akilina at 12-1 in the morning line may be your huckleberry. Akilina is trained by noted turf trainer Clement Christophe and ridden by Rajiv Maragh. What you can't see in the racing form but can see if you look at the result chart in Formulator is that the 5th place finisher in Akilina's last race, Nedjma, won and was claimed in a 25k open claiming race next out. Along with Acquired Cat winning her next out, this becomes something of a hidden key race. Akilina has to get better to win, but if you can get a good price, take a shot. Be sure to use in the exotics.
The next PH race is the 9th at Saratoga, the G1 Forego for 3 and up contested at 7 furlongs.
Two horses stand out to me in this race so I'll just get down to it.
#2 Kodiak Kowboy has the to Beyer's for this race, has run in good form last two out, 3 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 over the surface. Seems to be the one to beat here. Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Gabriel Saez, KK is also the 5-2 morning line favorite. I say,"If you can get 5-2 on KK, take it."
#4 Pyro is my 2nd choice and most likely where I will put my hard earned bucks if I play this race. Funny thing is, I burned a lot of money on Pyro as a 3 year old. Now he comes back and its like deja vu all over again. But...Pyro is coming off of a nice prep for bin Suroor Saeed who is 30% 2nd off layoffs coming into a G1 race. Again, sounds like a plan to me. Pyro is 4-1 in the morning line, and considering his checkered past, that seems about right.
Had a hard time going much deeper in this race, but after a lot of pondering I finally settled on the #7 Driven By Success for the 3rd choice. DBS has good early speed, which is always dangerous, but is not the only speed in the race, which is always dangerous to the early speed. Still DBS, a NY bred, has been competitive, if not entirely successful in open graded company finishing 3rd in the Metropolitan Hdcp and the Tom Fool Hdcp and would not be a complete surprise. Ramon Dominguez takes the seat, but Bruce Levine has been ice cold at the Spa so demand a price on this pony.
Finally we come to #6 Golden Trippi at 20-1 in the morning line. GT is the winner of Pyro's comeback race, so why 20-1. Perhaps its the lack of Graded success, but I would rather have GT than others in this race, so consider him a very tepid choice numero quatro.
Out to the other coast at Del Mar for the 8th race on that card The G1 Darly Debutante for 2 year old fillies.
The top choice here is the very unchalky 6-1 morning line runner #8 Repo. Repo has done nothing but win 3 of her 4 starts including two stakes victories. I don't understand the line makers reticence here except for possible the relatively low Beyer's figure last out. This is where I think reliance on Beyer's figures as a handicapping tool can be misleading. Repo stalked the pace last out, moved to win and won easily. It's not her fault the pacesetter was slow and its to Cory Nakatani's credit that he took no more from the horse than needed to win. But Cory will not be on Repo as we get a positive jockey change to Mr. Garrett Gomez for this race. Personally, I will be surprised if she goes off anything near 6-1 but will consider it a Prime bet if the line maker is correct.
#6 Mi Sueno is pick number 2 and the 9/5 morning line favorite. Mi Sueno comes off a G3 win where she turned the tables on 1st race foe and 3rd choice # 4 Necessary Evil. Both Mi Sueno and Necessary Evil are flattered that by the 4th place finisher in their last race, Camille C, who won a 100k overnight for Cal breds next out. Either of these two could take out the top choice Repo.
#3 Blind Luck is the 4th choice. 9-2 in the morning line, BL has won 2 races in 2 tries with speed to spare. The two races were a 4ok maiden claimer and a40k Starter allowance so she will need to step up in class some to compete here. But note she spotted the field over 7 lengths due to a bad start and still won by an easy 3.5 lengths.
Now for the race we all are waiting for the G1 Woodward.
#3 Rachel Alexandra's last out 116 is 6 points better than the next best Beyer's on the form and 9 points better than the next best last out, and she has improved her Beyer's for 10 consecutive races. How much better can she get? She is an obvious top pick and frankly, this race probably won't be playable.
As for the competition. #1 Da Tara has been disappointing since the 2008 Belmont Stakes, #2 Bullsbay seems unlikely to duplicate his 107 effort last out, #1a Cool Coal Man won by a huge margin last out and could upset the precocious filly, #4 Macho Again also ran his best ever figure last out in finishing 2nd, #5 It's a Bird (Birdonthewire not Birdstone) ships in for Marty Wolfson who won with Icon Project and is 18% with a positive ROI when shipping out for stakes races, #6 Asiatic Boy was considered for the Pacific Classic when Rachel declared her intentions showing how much confidence McLaughlin has here, and #7 Past The Point will have to regain his form from last fall to have a chance.
Here's the race in short hand
#3 Rachel Alexandra
#1a Cool Coal Man
#5 It'a A Bird
#2 Bullsbay
Good luck and see you tomorrow with the Pacific Classic
Showing posts with label Saratoga race track. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saratoga race track. Show all posts
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Rainy Day For Travers
Wet weather will be the order of the day for Saratoga Springs. After last weeks poor showing by yours truly, that's all I need is for the rain to wreak havoc on my selections this week.
If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.
On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.
The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.
No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.
Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.
The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout
Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????
The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.
Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.
This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com
I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.
The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note
The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.
Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.
Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.
Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.
The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.
Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds
8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings
And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.
The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.
The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.
6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.
The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me
6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road
That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.
Good luck.
If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.
On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.
The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.
No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.
Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.
The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout
Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????
The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.
Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.
This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com
I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.
The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note
The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.
Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.
Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.
Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.
The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.
Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds
8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings
And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.
The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.
The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.
6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.
The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me
6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road
That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.
Good luck.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
