Last Chance For Some Derby Hopefuls

Going into the what is realistically the last chance for some Derby hopefuls to gain the coveted graded stakes earnings they need to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. For today, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn will be the big draws.

First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.

The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.

This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.

The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.

To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.

Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.

For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.

In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them

#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1

The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.

Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.

This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.

Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.

Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.

The contenders and required odds to play are as follows

#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1

For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.

I'm Off!