Ladies First

The most important day of racing in North America, Breeder's Cup included, is preceded by the KY Derby equivalent for 3 year old fillies, the Kentucky Oaks to be run tomorrow at 5:45. Unlike the first Saturday in May this year, the forecast for the last Friday in April for Louisville is sunny skies

Last year's edition featured a short field that was completely outclassed by Rachel Alexander. This years offering should be an interesting race with a full field of betting opportunities.

There is a class horse in the race by the name of Blind Luck a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and third place finisher in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Blind Luck is your likely favorite and deserves to be, but she isn't a slam dunk.

Amen Hallelujah is consistent as all get out having finished in the money in 5 consecutive graded events. She has excellent tactical speed and will likely be forwardly placed, but she is not a need to lead type so look for someone else to set the early fractions. Her speed numbers in her last three G2 outing in which she won 2 of 3 put her right in the thick of things. She may be the one to catch when they turn for the stretch. Oh, and did I mention Julien Leparoux?

Evening Jewel won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland last out and came within a nose of the favorite 2 races back. This makes Evening Jewel an automatic contender to upset Blind Luck. Evening Jewel wired the Ashland but don't expect a repeat of that tactic in this race.

The third choice to upset Blind Luck is Beautician. Why not? A cursory look at her form shows what appears to be a spotty performer. On one day and way off the next. But take a closer look.
Beautician broke her maiden in her first race on this very track. Went directly to Saratoga with 2 strong efforts in the G3 Schuylerville and G1 Spinaway Stakes. Moved on to Keeneland in the fall on their all-weather surface turning in a so-so effort. Bested Blind Luck in the BC Juvenile with a 2nd place finish. Real bad at Hollywood, different surface. Real good at Oaklawn, back on dirt and so-so again at Keeneland. Now she is back on the surface she is proven on. Look for a strong effort. I'd go so far as to make her my upset pick for the race.

Quiet Temper and Crisp also deserve mention as possibilities, but you can't play the entire field.

Gun to my head, Blind Luck. However I'll be taking a good hard look to upset Blind Luck in this race and think I have provided three solid prospects to pull that off. Whatever you do, best of luck.

I'll be back with the Derby and other races from Saturday's Churchill card.

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I'm off