Skip the Derby--Aim for the Preakness

That's my advice to the connections of the hardest working 3 yo colt in racing, Jackson Bend. Not that they need my advice. Nick Zito has more experience in his little toe than I have in my super-sized body when it comes to placing horses in classic races.

However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.

I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?

Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.

Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up

This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.

No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.

Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.

In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.

7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1

The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds

This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.

My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.

Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).

The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.

Summary and needed odds

1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1

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Preakness Post Mortem

A day late and $23.00 short (the total amount I played on the Preakness) I'm trying to figure out what to do with that little thingy to the left on the top with my picture. At first, I was just using my raw Public Handicapper Picks up. However, since I don't necessarily play my top choice in a race, I decided that wasn't an accurate representation of my results.

Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.

So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.

So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.

My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.

After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).

Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.

However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.

If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.

In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.

The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.

The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.

Pub Handicapper Picks for May 16

Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.

Well, here goes nothing

Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds


#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race

Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up


#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux

Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up



#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.

R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's


P# 12th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1

I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.

Black-Eyed Susan and Later Preakness Thoughts

The Black-Eyed Susan for 3yo Fillies. Well I just saw that Hooh Why my top choice is scratched. Matt Carruthers on TVG said we knew about this days ago, but I didn't. Well that sort of changes everything. #8 Don't Forget Gil was my 2nd choice, but Hooh Why was a major pace factor and I envisioned a scenario where Hooh Why and Casanova Move would hook up early and set the race up for Don't Forget Gil.

That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.

Here are the odds:

#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.

For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.

Early Preakness Thoughts

I spent my whole lunch hour today looking at the Preakness Stakes past performances and thinking about how to approach the race. As much as I looked forward to the Derby this is a far more interesting race to me.

The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.

I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.

Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?

Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.

However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.

Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.

Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.

Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.

Next time I'll tell who I like and why.