Black-Eyed Susan and Later Preakness Thoughts

The Black-Eyed Susan for 3yo Fillies. Well I just saw that Hooh Why my top choice is scratched. Matt Carruthers on TVG said we knew about this days ago, but I didn't. Well that sort of changes everything. #8 Don't Forget Gil was my 2nd choice, but Hooh Why was a major pace factor and I envisioned a scenario where Hooh Why and Casanova Move would hook up early and set the race up for Don't Forget Gil.

That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.

Here are the odds:

#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.

For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.