Derby Day 2010.."Who'll Stop The Rain"

Just a quicky for Derby Day today. Got to look at the form for Calder as the wife ambushed me with the assumption that we were going to Calder for today's festivities. I wanted to watch the racing from the comfort of my living room.



First up is the G1 Humana Distaff. What better race to look for mudders than in a race for 4 and up fillies and mares.



Top pick is #3 Informed Decision winner of last years Humana on a sloppy Derby day. Last year Informed Decision also broke from post 3, was 2nd off a layoff, had J. Leparoux aboard, and came out of the G1 Madison at Keeneland. Holy deja vu, Batman! History repeats itself today.

#6 has been "Pretty Prolific" on an off track and has been swapping strides with the number 3 contender, Warbling, for the last three races winning once and finishing behind her the other two times. The win came on a sloppy track; therefore advantage Pretty Prolific.

#2 Warbling is fairly accomplished for a mere 5 race career including a win over next out winner Tar Heel Mom in the G2 Inside Information stakes at Gulfstream Park last out. Look's like she can handle an off track OK and should have a strong chance here.

If you're looking for a live longshot look no further than the #9 Rated Fiesty running for Steve Asmussen. 1 for 1 in slop and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. She's not as accomplished as the other 3, but she does have ability and the stars may be aligned for her today.

The G2 Churchill Downs is full of familiar names the classiest of which may be #7 Warrior's Reward. Once again J. Leparoux has the reins. Warrior has found rewards on off going and is 3 for 4 at the distance. A true specialist at this distance.

#12 Musket Man ran well in the Derby last year finishing 3rd and has been triple digit Brisnet consistent losing by only a nose to the top choice last out. If the top choice falters in any way, Musket Man should be right there

3rd choice is #8 Ventana a G2 winner last out. Raced well in one try over off going and ships in for Bob Baffert who is an astonishing 24% in Graded races with a positive ROI meaning all these runners are not going off at short prices. Jockey of the year runner up Garret Gomez is in the irons and West Coast runner have been doing well when coming east.

Long shot choice for this race is #13 Accredit. 5 for 5 on off tracks he is a true mudder who might take it all if he is on his fodder. Sorry I just couldn't help myself. Accredit won this race last year at 4 to 1 and considering the competition I expect he'll be a longer price this year.

Now for the Derby. Truth is, I don't have a clue. But I have opinions. I've been Lookin at Lucky since the Rebel and can't stop now even with the #1 post position draw. #1 Lookin at Lucky is the top choice.

The next choice in order are #6 Stately Victor, #10 Paddy O Prado with excellent off track breeding and #11 Devil May Care who has been working well on the sloppy Churchill track.

Good luck and I'm Off

Easter Sunday at Gulfstream Park

Have you ever noticed when watching a college football game, or even a high school game for that matter, the game can be totally entertaining even with the full realization that you are not watching the best athletes compete? That was feeling today at Gulfstream Park where there was not a single stakes race and the highest level race was an Allowance for non-winners of 3.

Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.

Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.

As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.

Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.

Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.

Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.

That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.

I'm Off