Sunshine Millions Lessons Learned

Nobody wins everyday, and anyone who claims to is a prevaricator. I have played the races on 12 days so far this year. I have had 6 winning days and 6 losing days. Yesterday was a losing day. I don't mind losing days so much, because there is always something to be learned from the losses. The following is what I learned yesterday.

1. If Todd Pletcher has a first time starter that cost 3.7 million at auction, Dunkirk, the horse is automatically a contender. The following description of Dunkirk's race comes straight from the results chart, "DUNKIRK rated after breaking slowly, was forced wait [sic] for room in behind a wall of horses on the turn, angled six wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to gain command inside the eight pole, then drew away."

While watching the race and keeping an eye on the horse everyone was talking about, I thought there was no way it was going to win the race. Then Dunkirk simply turned on the after-burners in that final furlong. It wasn't even close winning by an easy 5 3/4 length. Imagine if the trip for Dunkirk had been less troubled. Dunkirk paid 5.40 to win.

Todd Pletcher looking good and feeling good after Dunkirk's romp

2. Richard Dutrow is lethal 1st time with a horse. Remember that question I asked about This One's For Phil? Even though Phil was going Turf to Dirt and turning back in distance after leading the first two calls, one of my favorite angles, I still didn't think he was good enough to win, which he did paying $25.40.

Dutrow is 32% with a +0.40 ROI 1st time with a horse. This horse had two strong angles going for it that I ignored completely.

I'm sure there is more to learn, and I'll share them with you as the post mortem progresses.

As for my prognostications, 2 winners out of 4, but I'm not especially proud of that record. I totally whiffed on the Dash thanks to Phil.

In the Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream, Bel Air Sizzle decided she wasn't ready to go when they opened the gate spotting the field, at least, a full second head start. It's amazing she didn't finish dead last. Also the anticipated speed duel never materialized as the front-runners set reasonable fractions.

I did, at least manage to have the winners of the Santa Anita races I covered. I played Presious Passion to win in the Turf Race and Elvis Trujillo gave me a brilliant ride and PP did his best to hold 2nd giving me the consolation exacta prize.

I didn't see the 8th race, but know Georgie Boy took the honors although had I played the race I would have been on Sok Sok who did not do as well.

More later