Ok, today I begin my first day of accountability for my contest picks as I will begin filling in that little box on the left hand side.
First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.
My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.
I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.
If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.
If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.
If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.
If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.
If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"
I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.
Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.
Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.
Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp
#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3
#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1
#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.
Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1
#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.
Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap
I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.
That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there
Showing posts with label Eibar Coa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eibar Coa. Show all posts
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Thursday, January 8, 2009
A Horse to Watch For?
Let me begin by writing how pleased I am to be accepted into the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. The TBA consists of a group of bloggers all of whom share a great passion for the sport of racing. I urge you to use the drop-down menu to the left and explore the many fine blogs listed there. You will find this great sport covered from many different perspectives from historical, wagering, issue oriented (and we all have our issues) and personal.
Now, if you've been reading my posts, you have probably noted that I tend to write more about my own personal experiences at the races. Today I just have a brief note on something I observed yesterday from the Gulfstream Park grandstand.
The first race on Jan. 7 was a 6 furlong MCL 40k for 4 year olds and up. Many of the participants in this race were lightly raced 4yo's. One of the obvious contenders in this race was a Patrick Reynolds trainee named Touch Too Much ridden today by Eibar Coa. Touch Too Much finished a game 2nd in a Maiden race at Aqueduct on Nov 26 and was then put on the shelf to wait for Gulfstream Park. On paper she appeared to be a top contender in this race.
Touch Too Much stood out immediately to me in the Post Parade, but for all the wrong reasons. Any racing fan knows that as the horses pass the grandstand their pace will quicken and the horses as they move along will gradually move from walking to trotting to a slow gallop to warm up and stretch out before a race, just as any athlete does. Touch to Much never did any thing more than walk to the gate, nothing. I watched her all the way because I thought this was very unusual. I remarked to a patron sitting next to me that this was very suspicious, and as it turned out, I was correct.
Now there are legitimate reasons for a horse not to vigorously warm up prior to racing. Perhaps the horse is a little sore and they don't want to stress the horse too much before the real effort is needed. But Touch to Much has only raced twice prior to now, and if she was so sore she couldn't warm up at all, then why wasn't she scratched?
Once the race began, Touch Too Much chased the pace for the first two calls and then faded to last. "then had nothing left.", is how the chart commentator charitably put it.
I'm not usually one to cry that a race is fixed or that some chicanery is afoot. I fully understand that sometimes horses are entered into races with better intentions than others. But this just doesn't make sense to me. It looked to me more like a glorified workout than an true effort to actually win the race.
We all know that in the case of 2 year olds some trainers are good to go first time out and others tend to use the first race as part of their training regimen. But those stats are out there for all of us to see and, at least those of us who pay enough attention, know which trainers are out for a win and which are looking to the future.
I don't really know much about Pat Reynolds because I don't follow NY racing that closely. If anyone can shed some light on this for me, I'd really appreciate the heads up. Is this a pattern he usually employs? Inquiring minds want to know. Should I be looking for Touch To Much at a long price next out based on this effort, or is she just too sore to be considered?
Please leave a comment or send me an E-Mail if you can help me out with this.
Now, if you've been reading my posts, you have probably noted that I tend to write more about my own personal experiences at the races. Today I just have a brief note on something I observed yesterday from the Gulfstream Park grandstand.
The first race on Jan. 7 was a 6 furlong MCL 40k for 4 year olds and up. Many of the participants in this race were lightly raced 4yo's. One of the obvious contenders in this race was a Patrick Reynolds trainee named Touch Too Much ridden today by Eibar Coa. Touch Too Much finished a game 2nd in a Maiden race at Aqueduct on Nov 26 and was then put on the shelf to wait for Gulfstream Park. On paper she appeared to be a top contender in this race.
Touch Too Much stood out immediately to me in the Post Parade, but for all the wrong reasons. Any racing fan knows that as the horses pass the grandstand their pace will quicken and the horses as they move along will gradually move from walking to trotting to a slow gallop to warm up and stretch out before a race, just as any athlete does. Touch to Much never did any thing more than walk to the gate, nothing. I watched her all the way because I thought this was very unusual. I remarked to a patron sitting next to me that this was very suspicious, and as it turned out, I was correct.
Now there are legitimate reasons for a horse not to vigorously warm up prior to racing. Perhaps the horse is a little sore and they don't want to stress the horse too much before the real effort is needed. But Touch to Much has only raced twice prior to now, and if she was so sore she couldn't warm up at all, then why wasn't she scratched?
Once the race began, Touch Too Much chased the pace for the first two calls and then faded to last. "then had nothing left.", is how the chart commentator charitably put it.
I'm not usually one to cry that a race is fixed or that some chicanery is afoot. I fully understand that sometimes horses are entered into races with better intentions than others. But this just doesn't make sense to me. It looked to me more like a glorified workout than an true effort to actually win the race.
We all know that in the case of 2 year olds some trainers are good to go first time out and others tend to use the first race as part of their training regimen. But those stats are out there for all of us to see and, at least those of us who pay enough attention, know which trainers are out for a win and which are looking to the future.
I don't really know much about Pat Reynolds because I don't follow NY racing that closely. If anyone can shed some light on this for me, I'd really appreciate the heads up. Is this a pattern he usually employs? Inquiring minds want to know. Should I be looking for Touch To Much at a long price next out based on this effort, or is she just too sore to be considered?
Please leave a comment or send me an E-Mail if you can help me out with this.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
