Well the cup has come and gone. As always, I am left breathless by these amazingly competitive races. I've got to start saving my pennies now so the I can attend next year's edition live at Churchill Downs.
Didn't do to bad as a handicapper on the Friday card as several top picks came home first including the 9.8-1 Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Had some straight winners on Saturday too, but tried to hard to find the upsets rather than let them come naturally. Have to remember that the game is not about picking winners but finding the overlay. I found that overlay in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where #3 contender Furthest Land brought home the bacon at a juicy 21.3-1. Find one of those and your day is made. I hope you played it
Hey if the Weasel helped you prosper in any way during the Cup, show him some love and let him know.
But enough about me. The Fair Grounds has reopened for the '09-'10 season. The Weasel loves the Fair Grounds. On the opening Saturday the Weasel found Air Combat going off at 15.6-1 in the first race and Weekend Pass @ 6.1-1 in the 5th. Sweet!!
Anyone who plays Calder Race Course has to be able to deal with wet weather as Summer is the rainy season here in sunny South Florida. The management tries to schedule races for the turf, but the reality is that many if not most of them are washed off onto the main track. Thus, it has finally occurred to the thick-headed Weasel that perhaps there are some trainers laying in wait for those "off the turf" races entering horses who have never done anything more than eat a blade of grass in the expectation of getting to run on the main track.
Then it occurs to the Weasel that if trainers do, indeed, enter horses into turf races actually intending to run them only if the race comes onto the main track, that some may be better at it than others. Ya think? If one were to go back through the results chart, one may be able to discern which trainers are lurking for "off the turf" races and which are just out for the exercise. Finally, it occurs to the Weasel that this is a novel angle that he has never read of anywhere before, so perhaps there may be an edge to be found here.
Well it's too late for Calder as the rainy season has past. However, thought the Weasel, the Fair Grounds sees it's fair share of rainy weather over the Winter. Perhaps we can use this angle for the upcoming meet. And so I bring to you the results of my hours of research for your perusal and, hopefully, profit.
I went through each day's chart for the '08-'09 season looking for races that were taken off the turf. The following spreadsheet insert shows the top trainers in terms of ROI. For, after all it is ROI that counts.
First let me show you the top "off the turf" trainers.
Granted, are number of trainers that do not have a significant number of races. However, surprising to me is the prescence of Bill Mott on the list. Mr. Mott being a well-known, successful trainer, I figured his entries would be over bet. This not the case. Mott has 5 wins in 16 off turf races for a 31% success rate and 21 cents earned for every federal reserve note (FRN) laid. Caveat about Mott, catch him early in the season as his win rate dropped as the season progressed. I expect as the weather warms up North so goes Mott's better horses.
But what I'm really looking for are those lesser known trainrs with positive results i.e. Richard Scherer at 98 cents per FRN. Patrick Mouton at 68 cents per FRN.
Be careful with Steve Asmussen. Winner of 6 out of 20 for a 30% hit rate, you take a slow road to the poor house losing 42 cent per FRN as his entries are typically underlaid at Fair Grounds. Other notable trainers to avoid Tom Amoss, Alvin Sider, Steve Margolis, Keith Bourgeois, Bret Calhoun, Sam Breaux, Mark Casse, Mark Frostad and a horde of others.
The list of trainers with negative ROI's and flat out no "off turf" wins is far longer than the short list above. When confronting races off the turf stick with Mott (early), Mouton, Scherer (Richard, not Merrill), and Stall and let's make some cash.
Check out my last entry (maybe they'll ask me back again some time) at www.casetherace.com this Saturday. Just missed with a live firster last out. Maybe I'll get lucky this time.
I'm Off
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