Soupy State Breds and Keeneland Too!

By way of reintroduction I will state the goal of this Blog site.  Share handicapping ideas and selections with other  handicappers.  I will take a contrarian approach turning handicapping conventional wisdom on it's head when appropriate in order to find overlayed, winning plays.  I will not bore you by giving you picks that every other prognosticator or you yourself will come up with.  What would be the point of that?  I also will not bore you with tired cliches and overblown flowery prose as many writers of these types of articles, myself included, are prone to lapse into from time to time.  So let's get to it.

It's raining at Belmont (at least it was when I wrote this last night).  Isolated showers are predicted into the night.  They are off the turf and all but the highest quality races are probably off tomorrow.  The track takes time to dry so conditions will likely remain less that fast at least for the beginning of the day.

Race 2 is the Iroquois for a 150k purse 7f for 3yo and up fillies and mares

3 Agave Kiss is the ML favorite at 2/1.  Being trained by R. Rodriquez and ridden by Ramon, I'll take the under on those Post Time Odds.  Agave Kiss may be the best, but there are others which merit consideration and will be better prices.

7 Risky Rachel is 5/2 on the ML and may also be a little short in the price department come post time but she definitely has to be considered a threat to the favorite

The value in the race may be the 4 Miss Valentine who has been cycling towards her 3 year old top.  She is 8/1 on the ML and if the top 2 take excess money in the betting she could go off higher.  She will have to break through that top and run the best race of her life to win here.  She is well rested and, for what its worth, jockey Joel Rosario is 27% on off tracks with a positive ROI and the offspring of sire Afleet Alex win at 18% on off tracks.  Definitely use this one in the exotics if nothing else.

The 5th race at Belmont is the 7f BF Bongard 125k for 2yo NY breds

5/2 Weekend Hideaway is the ML favorite and is also cursed with the designation of being a DRF Best Bet.  Here you have to ask yourself if you really want to take a short priced 2yo in a full field of 14 where anything can and will happen.  Alternatives in this race would be the #2 In Harm's Way at 4/1, the # 7 Western Grit at 5/1 and my personal favorite at 8/1 the #12 Meet the Mets.  While the other 4 contenders will be surrounded by green runners, Meet the Mets has the best opportunity to stay out of trouble.  Improvement will be required, but with a little racing luck MtM might wind up being the trip horse for this race.

In Race 6, the 150k Hudson there can be a real opportunity as the 4/5 favorite #2 Saginaw has not shown a particular liking for the off track.  That said the 6 year old has been dominant, but not perfect, in 2012.  The only question is can he be beaten.  Take a good hard look at the #6 Shrewd One at 3/1 and #4 Mine Over Matter  at 6/1.

In race 8, take a look at the #6 Kelli Got Frosty at 6/1 on the ML.  This Filly is as good as any in here but may get no respect, Rudy Rodriguez not withstanding.  Others to consider in a wide open race are #3 Gee Linz and #2 Agilon.  Bettor beware as DRF does not consider either the 6 or the 3 as serious contenders.

I have not reviewed any turf races due to the uncertain condition of tomorrow's turf course.  Handicapping the turf races is pointless without knowing if the race is actually on the surface and which horses will be in or out once any changes to the surface are made.  I will 'cap those once the situation is clarified but may not have time to write about it here.  Follow me on Twitter for updates as the day progresses.

Now for Keeneland

Had to go deep on the Keeneland card to find what I think will be the best opportunities of the day.  Found 3 races to be of particular interest

Race 7 is a MSW 50k for 2yo's on the synthetic track.

I like the ML 9/2 colt #10 O T B Bob, but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy.  Leroy ran a figure in his first time out that is just a little below some of the shorter choices in the ML and figures to run better at 2nd asking.  There are others that also figure to move forward here such as the aforementioned O T B Bob, #6 Forward Thinker (4/1), and #2 Holden On (5/1).  Any of these are worthy choices in this wide open race.  Because the race is wide open, why not take a shot with a long price.  If you can't use Hey Leroy on top, at least make sure you have him on the ticket somewhere

Race 9 is the G2 Ravens Run for 3yo Fillies.

The ML favorites are #11 Gypsy Robin (3/1) trained by Wesley Ward and #10 Via Villagio (4/1) trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.  I will be looking to the inside for my prices and recommend going with #4 Lotta Lovin (8/1) trained by Michael Maker. Lotta Lovin appeared to be rounding up to a very good effort before throwing in a clunker at Parx last out.  I'm blaming the surface change.  If Lotta Lovin can duplicate her February effort at Turfway, which she was rounding back to before the detour, she is right in the hunt against her more heralded opposition.  I expect to be using her to win and in exactas with the faves.
 
Race 10 is a 10k Claimer for 3 and up

If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race.  My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML.  Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite.  Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO.  Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID.  No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race.  Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1).  Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet.  Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post.  I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics.

I do reserve the right to change my opinion as conditions warrant, so follow me on Twitter to get up to the minute updates.  I wish you the best of luck today.

Stay Tuned for Keeneland and Belmont Selections This Saturday

I've held this space dormant long enough.  Come back Saturday as I'm sure there are going some interesting races to peruse from Keeneland, Belmont and maybe a few other tracks as well.

Summit of Speed, Part 2

Quickly back with the last 3 races of Calder's Summit of Speed.

The Carry Back Stakes, Race 9 on your program consists of D' Funnybone and 4 pretenders necessary to fill the race. D' Funnybone consistently runs 6f almost 2 seconds faster than any of the others. The only way to play this race is to use D' Funnybone as a single in your Pick 4

As I said this is just a quickie as I would like to take a look at todays Belmont Card before heading to the races.

For the G3 Azalea Stakes #5 Buckleupbuttercup turns back in distance and trainer Eddie Kenneally is 33% with the Route to Sprint maneuver. #8 Pica Slew blistered the track here in the Leave Me Alone Stakes on Pre-View day so look for another good showing from her. Finally Bronx City Girl is first of the claim for Marty Wolfson. Marty doesn't play the claiming game very often but he does it at a 78% success rate next out. Still #6BCG has not proven herself in any way in stakes competition and only merits 3rd choice.

Odds
#5 Buckleupbuttercup play at 2/1 or better
#8 Pica Slew play at 9/2 or better
#6 Bronx City Girl plat at 9/1 or better.

The 11th race, The Princess Rooney Handicap-G1, is a good contentious affair. Again there are 6 or maybe 7 that have legit chances here, but I have to settle on only 3 or in this case 4 contenders. #7 Dr. Zic is one who didn't make the cut although I wouldn't be surprised if she wires the field. #13 First Passage is a horse for the course, but I think her late closing running style combined with the far outside draw hurts her chances here. Still watch for the weather, a drying track at Calder can do funny things to the track profile, and for scratches which may move First Passage a few lanes closer to the rail.

The 4 I settled on are #8 Dubai Majesty, almost another horse for the course with 3 wins in 8 races coming out of a G3 win in the Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. #9 Warbling who is probably as good as if not better than Dubai Majesty, just don't know how she'll handle the track. #5 Mother Ruth who just has the look of a horse that has suddenly learned what its all about. and #4 Hour Glass who is 4 of 5 at the distance and comes of a G2 win at Belmont, Vagrancy Handicap.

Playable odds

#8 Dubai Majesty 9/2
#9 Warbling 5/1
#5 Mother Ruth 7/1
#4 Hour Glass 8/1

That's all today.

I'm gone

Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap from Calder Race Course

On July 10 Calder Race Course (and casino) will be holding their annual Summit of Speed. This year I will bring some of my feelings on the races beginning today with Race 10 in your program, the Smile Sprint Handicap. As is my custom, I will be attending the races live and might even stray from the simulcast monitors long enough to go down and look at the horses if it's not raining. Look for me. I'll have on the sunglasses and the brown HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) cap. Speaking of HANA. After this day is over, I am going to write an article regarding my take on the day and how well, or poorly Calder Race Course (and casino) handled what should be a large crowd and submit it to HANA for posting on their website.

The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.

Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.

This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.

#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.

Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.

The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better

The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.

#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.

To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.

Later