Soupy State Breds and Keeneland Too!

By way of reintroduction I will state the goal of this Blog site.  Share handicapping ideas and selections with other  handicappers.  I will take a contrarian approach turning handicapping conventional wisdom on it's head when appropriate in order to find overlayed, winning plays.  I will not bore you by giving you picks that every other prognosticator or you yourself will come up with.  What would be the point of that?  I also will not bore you with tired cliches and overblown flowery prose as many writers of these types of articles, myself included, are prone to lapse into from time to time.  So let's get to it.

It's raining at Belmont (at least it was when I wrote this last night).  Isolated showers are predicted into the night.  They are off the turf and all but the highest quality races are probably off tomorrow.  The track takes time to dry so conditions will likely remain less that fast at least for the beginning of the day.

Race 2 is the Iroquois for a 150k purse 7f for 3yo and up fillies and mares

3 Agave Kiss is the ML favorite at 2/1.  Being trained by R. Rodriquez and ridden by Ramon, I'll take the under on those Post Time Odds.  Agave Kiss may be the best, but there are others which merit consideration and will be better prices.

7 Risky Rachel is 5/2 on the ML and may also be a little short in the price department come post time but she definitely has to be considered a threat to the favorite

The value in the race may be the 4 Miss Valentine who has been cycling towards her 3 year old top.  She is 8/1 on the ML and if the top 2 take excess money in the betting she could go off higher.  She will have to break through that top and run the best race of her life to win here.  She is well rested and, for what its worth, jockey Joel Rosario is 27% on off tracks with a positive ROI and the offspring of sire Afleet Alex win at 18% on off tracks.  Definitely use this one in the exotics if nothing else.

The 5th race at Belmont is the 7f BF Bongard 125k for 2yo NY breds

5/2 Weekend Hideaway is the ML favorite and is also cursed with the designation of being a DRF Best Bet.  Here you have to ask yourself if you really want to take a short priced 2yo in a full field of 14 where anything can and will happen.  Alternatives in this race would be the #2 In Harm's Way at 4/1, the # 7 Western Grit at 5/1 and my personal favorite at 8/1 the #12 Meet the Mets.  While the other 4 contenders will be surrounded by green runners, Meet the Mets has the best opportunity to stay out of trouble.  Improvement will be required, but with a little racing luck MtM might wind up being the trip horse for this race.

In Race 6, the 150k Hudson there can be a real opportunity as the 4/5 favorite #2 Saginaw has not shown a particular liking for the off track.  That said the 6 year old has been dominant, but not perfect, in 2012.  The only question is can he be beaten.  Take a good hard look at the #6 Shrewd One at 3/1 and #4 Mine Over Matter  at 6/1.

In race 8, take a look at the #6 Kelli Got Frosty at 6/1 on the ML.  This Filly is as good as any in here but may get no respect, Rudy Rodriguez not withstanding.  Others to consider in a wide open race are #3 Gee Linz and #2 Agilon.  Bettor beware as DRF does not consider either the 6 or the 3 as serious contenders.

I have not reviewed any turf races due to the uncertain condition of tomorrow's turf course.  Handicapping the turf races is pointless without knowing if the race is actually on the surface and which horses will be in or out once any changes to the surface are made.  I will 'cap those once the situation is clarified but may not have time to write about it here.  Follow me on Twitter for updates as the day progresses.

Now for Keeneland

Had to go deep on the Keeneland card to find what I think will be the best opportunities of the day.  Found 3 races to be of particular interest

Race 7 is a MSW 50k for 2yo's on the synthetic track.

I like the ML 9/2 colt #10 O T B Bob, but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy.  Leroy ran a figure in his first time out that is just a little below some of the shorter choices in the ML and figures to run better at 2nd asking.  There are others that also figure to move forward here such as the aforementioned O T B Bob, #6 Forward Thinker (4/1), and #2 Holden On (5/1).  Any of these are worthy choices in this wide open race.  Because the race is wide open, why not take a shot with a long price.  If you can't use Hey Leroy on top, at least make sure you have him on the ticket somewhere

Race 9 is the G2 Ravens Run for 3yo Fillies.

The ML favorites are #11 Gypsy Robin (3/1) trained by Wesley Ward and #10 Via Villagio (4/1) trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.  I will be looking to the inside for my prices and recommend going with #4 Lotta Lovin (8/1) trained by Michael Maker. Lotta Lovin appeared to be rounding up to a very good effort before throwing in a clunker at Parx last out.  I'm blaming the surface change.  If Lotta Lovin can duplicate her February effort at Turfway, which she was rounding back to before the detour, she is right in the hunt against her more heralded opposition.  I expect to be using her to win and in exactas with the faves.
 
Race 10 is a 10k Claimer for 3 and up

If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race.  My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML.  Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite.  Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO.  Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID.  No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race.  Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1).  Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet.  Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post.  I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics.

I do reserve the right to change my opinion as conditions warrant, so follow me on Twitter to get up to the minute updates.  I wish you the best of luck today.