10-27 Recap

www.cewreport.blogspot.com  Follow me on Twitter @cobb42

I work in the medical device industry.  The medical device industry is highly regulated and highly competitive.  Accountability in my profession is paramount.  I am required to deliver what I say I am going to deliver when I say I am going deliver it.  If only our politicians were held to such standards.

 Accountability is important to me personally as well.  My goal is to find winning plays that are off radar of most prognosticators, including the so-called professionals.  As an aside, has anyone ever noticed how many "professional" horse players seem to have other lines of work.  But I digress.

How did I do yesterday.  If I cannot help my readers win some nice paying mutuels, I will not waste your time or mine.  So let's see what happened.

Yesterday I covered three races from Keeneland.

In race 1, I flatly wanted to take a stand against the morning line favorite Crypto Kitten.  I thought that the betting public would be savvy enough to see through the making of Crytpo Kitten a favorite, and I was correct in that regard as he went of as the third choice in the betting at 3.8-1.  I preferred 3 horses over CK.  Expressively, Living My Dream and Tola.  Expressively ran well managing a 2nd place finish.  Living My Dream managed to fill out the super and Tola was completely out of the money.  The winner of the race, Thus, was sent off at 4-1 by the bettors.

I am disappointed the I overlooked the merits of Thus.  Outside of the fact that he was untried on synthetics, there was no reason not to give him consideration as Tiznow's offspring don't seem to have any issues running on the polytrack.  A mere 4.60 place payoff can't be considered a success.

Trying to catch up at Laurel and keeping an eye on Belmont and Keeneland, I did not Tweet as often as I would have liked.  I did catch couple winners early at Laurel and in the 4th at Keeneland, but there just isn't enough time when covering 3 tracks and trying to handicap to be as active in Twitter as I would like.  However, I did not let you down entirely.  Prior to the 5th at Keenland I tweeted that I did not like the favorite Judge Bill (2.4-1) and that I would be using the 2-3-5.  Sometimes my arm just hurts from patting myself on the back. The finish was 3-5-2.  The exacta paid $37.40 and the trifecta $135.00.  Not a bad spot play, eh.

For the 8th race I got a set up in the sheets which I have found to be very productive. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer had run 5 times this year and ran the same figure each time out.  The figure run was competitive for the race.  I love to use this type of horse as a key in Exactas, Tris, and supers.  Usually this type will give you a reliable performance, something I think you need from a key horse as well as a price.  I should have known things were awry when Tapit Dancer was the 3.7-1 second choice.  I stated that 7 Eye Candy Annie (8.5-1) was a solid 2nd place candidate, Ansus (11.5-1) looked promising in spite of his compromised turf pedigree and that Dame Marie (3.1-1) looked to be useful in the bottom rungs on the tri and super.  All of this I got right, but without the key horse it all comes to nada.  Tapit Dancer started out 9th in a field of 11 and was never a factor.  Julio Garcia and Wesley Ward who were en fuego had the winner with Sisterhood (5.4-1).

Finally we come to the 9th race.  A race to be proud of.  I wrote,"The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3."

Dare I say,"Nailed It!"  The order of finish was 4 Newsdad (8.5-1), 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (10-1), the key horse, 5 Take Charge Indy (4.6-1) and Salto (a very underlayed 3-2).  Middie brought up the 5th position.  If there had been a Big 5 type of vertical bet, I would have had that.  As it was the exacta paid $185.20, the Trifecta $1584.20 the $2 superfecta a cool $4539.60 and $226.98 for a mere dime.  As a matter of full disclosure, I do not personally like to play Tri's and supers preferring Win, Place and exactas.  I had the 3 to win and place and exactas keying the 3 with the other contenders.  This race made my day and I hope it made yours as well.

I will be back for the Breeder's cup and perhaps another track next week with a special Friday bonus addition.  As usual, I will not waste your time trying to predict the winner of every race, that is simply a tiresome and unproductive exercise for me.  I will look for areas where I think the odds will overlook a viable contender and point them out to you as I have done thus far.  The good thing about the BC races is that the pools are so large, and all the horses so good that there is a good deal of randomness in the outcomes.  For instance, last year I did not have alot of winners but I did have Musical Romance at 20-1, for a large amount, based simply on the awareness that horses that race all Summer long at Calder Race Course tend to be very fit and underrated.  These are the types of things I will look for next week and pass along.