Breeder's Cup 2012--Day 1

www.cewreport.blogspot.com

@cobb42

Finally, the much ballyhooed and hyped Breeder's Cup weekend returns.  I love the Breeder's Cup races although from a handicapping perspective I often find it very difficult to separate contenders and the entries are, for the most part usually very good.  Because of that there is no reason to settle for short prices in these races.

I would like to give a special thanks to the folks at Thoro-Graph for the great and dedicated work they have performed in getting the Thoro-Graph sheets online under what must be very trying circumstances due to hurricane Sandy.  Their office in Manhattan is like 2 or 3 blocks from the Hudson River near Battery Park, an area which was hit by a record setting storm surge.  Speaking as a 20+ year resident of coastal south Florida, I have certainly ridden out more severe hurricanes in terms of wind, but the storm surge is obviously the story of Sandra, not to mention the blizzard in higher elevations like West Virginia.  Blizzards are one thing I don't have to worry about here in the Miami area.

Meanwhile on to the business at hand, mainly finding some unique opportunities that maybe you won't find elsewhere.

I was a little underwhelmed with Friday's BC card.  Not with the quality of the fields, but my ability to come up with any creative ideas as the ML for the most part seemed to fall in line with my own thinking.

The BC Fillies Turf for 2yo is one race where there may be an opportunity with a large and evenly matched field.  There is nothing wrong with the 3/1 ML favorite #3 Sky Lantern, but in this big field of unpredictable 2yo's I'm willing to take a shot against her.  #5 Spring Venture (5/1) is undefeated in 3 starts with figures on turf just a little less than Sky Lantern's. I would recomend making this confirmed winner a key horse using the #6 Watsdachance (4/1), #13 Flashy Ways (10/1), and the improving #4 Flotilla (8/1).  The field large enough that you may be able to include Sky Lantern in the mix as well, that is assuming the odds follow the ML.  This is clearly a race where you have to let the odds make your final decision for you.  Should Sky Lantern, for some reason not be the betting favorite, elevate her in your ticket construction.  Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race.

In the 8th race on Friday, the BC Filly and Mare Turf.  I am not impressed with the ML favorites #4 The Fugue (7/2) and #10 Ridasiyna.  I would prefer to use the #2 Zagora(8/1) keying her with #8 Nahrain (6/1), #12 In Lingerie (12/1) and #9 Marketing Mix (9/2).  I like any of these better than the 2 ML favorites.  Another large field, and another potentially large pay out if I'm right about the ML favorites.

I'm sure there will be other opportunities to come up in the day.  I will also be trying my luck at Churchill Downs and Woodbine tomorrow and will try to Tweet out any spur of the moment ideas I come up with.

Good Luck and enjoy the racing this weekend, it doesn't get any better than this.