Whoa Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh...Aqueduh-uh-uh-uh-uh-uct

Sitting by the home stretch,
Eyeing little fillies making well placed bets.
Looking for the overlays,
Ink-stained fingers turning tattered pages.
Oh Aqueduct.

My apologies to Ian Anderson.

Ok, so I didn't have time to post last week.  I mean, its not like your paying for this great analysis or anything are you?

Time for the November racing doldrums.  The Breeders' Cup is passed and the big Winter tracks have yet to open.  Fortunately, Gulfstream Park will open on December 1st.  GP is my home track and I expect to have another great wagering season and will bring you along for the ride with some great picks.  Fair Grounds opens on Thanksgiving day.  Fair Grounds is one of my favorite tracks to play.  Sometimes I think my Cajun brethren just get band wagon crazy on horses leaving perfectly viable contenders way overlaid.  There will be prices and payoffs to have, and I intend to get my share.

Moving Aqueduct, where there is a nice card for a late fall day, I want to talk about the 6th race the 80k If Winter Comes stakes. Soldat, #5 in your racing program, is the 3/1 morning line favorite.  Soldat has not races since March and that was off another 10 month layoff from his 3 year old season.  Horses coming off a layoff do not deter me.  It is an old racing common wisdom that horses coming off long layoffs should be avoided.  I believe that old saw is no longer as applicable as it was 10 or 20 years ago.  So many things have changed in equine science with regard to therapies, medicine and training techniques over the years, that I am of the belief that horses, in the right hands, can come off a layoff and win top quality races.  Kiaran McLaughlin is certainly the right hands.

All that being said, I believe there is an opportunity here to play against the ML favorite who has run 1 race since May, 2011. #2 Lubash (6/1) will start for Christophe Clement.  Lubash consistently runs his race and will make an excellent horse to key with.  In his last race, Lubash disappointed his backers as the race favorite finishing 4th.  According to the track notes, Lubash fought the bit, was rank, was eased back, had alter course.  A troubled trip to say the least.  Here's to the belief that whatever was bothering Lubash will be cured today and he will run back to his normal numbers.

To be used with Lubash will be #3 Beau Choix (5/1).  Beau Choix is another that is more machine than horse.  In other words a very consistent sort.  Should Beau Choix go to the post at higher odds than Lubash, the possibility of calling an audible and using him at the key should be considered.

Another to use will be #4 Queen'splatekitten (7/2).  A very capable Kitten's Joy colt trained by Todd (is a god) Pletcher.  QPK will surely get overbet, as all of Todd's entries are, but should certainly be used as he rates to be right there and a win would not be a shocker.

Finally I cannot ignore ML favorite Soldat.  Soldate has run well off long layoffs in the past and a win here is certainly not out of the question.  I'm not going to bet on it, but Soldat cannot be tossed away and will have to be used in the vertical exotics just to keep thing covered. 

So there you have it.  Key either Lubash or Beau Choix with QPK and Soldat in exactas, Trifecta's, and supers with the others.

Chuchill runs one of their twilight cards today which may be popular with the locals but plays havoc with the Chalk Eating Weasel who is usually well into his 2nd fine Bourbon of the night by the time the good races come up. I particularly liked the race 7, the G3 Commonwealth Stakes on Turf.

Race 7 is wide open with no clear favorite, so if we can get this right, we will get paid!. I am not going to use the ML Favorite #11 King Davd (4/1) even though he has a great line.  I prefer the #1 horse Film Shot (8/1) as my key horse in this race.  Film shot also has a very nice line coming into this race and looks to improve of a very good effort at Hawthorne.  Film Shot breaks from Post 1 and should be able to get another ground saving trip for us. 

To be used with Film Shot will be the #6 Lea(5/1) ridden by BC Classic winner B.J. Hernandez.  Lea is another consistent runner who figures to be near the front when the field reaches the wire.  Rounding out the vertical wagers will be #9 Excaper (10/1) and #14 Lockout (8/1).  If any two or 3 of these can run as they've been runnning all year and the favorite King David regresses even a little off his recent top, we may have a very generous payoff from this race. 

I am also following Woodbine and Delta downs today, so watch for tweets from @cobb42 for any spot plays I come up with from these two tracks as well as AQU and CD.

Good luck.