Breeder's Cup Day 2

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@cobb42

In my last I wrote in reference to the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, " Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race."  That statement could almost be univerally applied to all of Friday's BC races as only Royal Delta and Beholder came in under $10.00 for the win.  Today should be no different.

First let's look at Friday's action with regard to my predictions.

In the BC Juvi. Fillies Turf.  I wanted to use Spring Venture as the key horse, but after the TVG panel of "experts" all jumped on this horse I despaired getting a square price on her.  Falling a little for the early hype, I thought that Sky Lantern might be a viable alternative if she should somehow eluded favoritism.  Sky Lantern turned out to be the favorite and Spring Venture the 2nd choice at 5-2 and 7-2 respectively. 

I followed my own advice and did not accept short prices in this race.  I Tweeted an audible and suggested using the #4 Flotilla keyed with  Whatsdachances, Spring Venture, and Flashy Ways.  History will record that Flotilla finished ahead of Whatsdachances triggering a 24.80 win price and a $85.50 (for a dollar) exacta.  This race is a classic example of letting the odds make the betting decision. 

For the BC F&M Turf the recomendation was #2 Zagora keying her with #8 Nahrain, #12 In Lingerie  and #9 Marketing Mix refusing to believe the hype with regard to The Fugue and Ridasiyna.  Javier Castellano was brilliant on Zagora saving ground for much of the trip and swinging her out at just the right moment to win going away while Marketing Mix held off late running The Fugue to grab 2nd place.  The win paid $18.40 and the dollar exacta returned $47.90. 

Two races covered, two wins and exacta payoffs, not bad.  Before R7 I Tweeted that I thought Beholder was overlayed at 9-2 and suggested to using him with Executive Privelege and Kauai Katie.  Beholder paid $3.90 to win and the dollar exacta $13.30.  I also Tweeted that Grace Hall in the Ladies Classic appeared to be a huge overlay as she finally settled at 14-1 final odds.  Royal Delta won the race at a buck seventy to 1.  No surprise there while Grace Hall finished a non threatening 4th.  Just goes to show you can't win them all.  The real surprise in this race, to me, was the disappearance of the 2nd choice Awesome Feather who clearly did not run her usual race.  Questing was pulled up and vanned off.  I remember hearing people around me noticing she was sweating excessively did not look good in the post parade.  Sounds like another horse that should not have been allowed to go to post.

All of that is yesterday's news, what about today?

The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf looks to be wide open with not clear morning line favorite.  I will be looking to use the 9 Noble Tune, 13 Know More, 2 Artigiano, and 6 Dundonnel listed in my order of preference.  In this race I will use one of these as a key horse, but I will let the odds make that decision for me.  Not a real clear prognostication, but if you really need someone to hold your hand through this one, follow me on Twitter.

The Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint is another pick 'em race with no dominant contender to soak up a lot of wagering money.  This race and the BC Juvi Turf promise to have gigantic mutuel payouts as a result of the public's indecision.  Eventually the herd will settle on some one depending on how the betting goes and who the "pros" are touting.  Our job will be to steer our path clear of the herd and I think we can do that with the 8 Great Attack (10-1), 5 Next Question (10-1), 9 Bridgetown (a very luke-warm 9-2 ML favorite) and 11 Mizdirection (20-1).  Again, in this race, the odds will make the final decision for us and I will Tweet the key before the race.  More incentive to follow me on Twitter.

In the Breeder's Cup Classic, everybody will be talking about the 5 Game on Dude (9-5), 2 Flat Out (5-1), and 11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1).  In fact I will be using these very horses.  But the horse I think may get over-looked in this race is the 4 Fort Larned (5-1).  I predict his post time odds will be higher due to the better known names in the race like Ron The Greek,  To Honor and Serve, and Richard's Kid.  It will also help that trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey B.J. Hernandez are not exactly household names to the casual twice a year racing fan.  Fort Larned has the perfect running line to use as a key horse being a very consistent and honest horse who also happens to be competitive with the others in this race.  So....just to be clear, Fort Larned will be the key to use with the other 3 mentioned in this race.

That's it for today.  Hopefully, yesterday's performance can be duplicated today as that would make for a very successful BC weekend.  Follow me on Twitter @cobb42 as it has been demonstrated that audible's can and may be called.  Good luck to all and mostly good luck to the jockey and the horses.  Here's to hoping they all come back healthy and sound.