Walkin' To New Orleans

Apologies to Fats Domino.  This week I'm moving my handicapping visor to one of my favorite cities, New Orleans, where the bourbon flows freely, the horses are cheap and the women are...well.

The feature race on today's Fair Grounds card is the $75k Pago Hop for 3 year old fillies.  The race features a highly competitive 8 horse field where it is possible to make a legitimate case for 7 of the 8 entries in the race with only Kazachka (30/1) appearing not to fit.

The morning line favorite is number 6 Drama Drama (3/1).  Drama Drama turned in an excellent effort last out in the G2 Raven Run at Keeneland last October.  A repeat of this effort will be good enough to win the Pago Hop which is why she is favored.  But you see, the Raven Run was contested over the Poly track.  Drama Drama has demonstrated turf ability and I will use her on my tickets, but I am going to look elsewhere for my key horse.

The number 1 filly, Ire (7/2), gets Rosie Napravnik who was just lights out at Fair Grounds last season.  I remember remarking to friends last year that you bet against Rosie at peril to your bankroll at the Fair Grounds.  Ire is another who has been running good enough to win this race, but she has never raced on grass. Ire will take a lot of money because of her connections and may be a factor in this race.  I will use her on my tickets as well.  I will not let Rosie hurt me at Fair Grounds, but I still need a key horse.

In this race I finally settled on the 8 Zapper Belle (6/1).  Zapper Belle is another fillie with a good October effort at Keeneland.  There is one key difference between races at Keeneland for Drama Drama and Zapper Belle.  The Valley View (G3) was run on turf. Zapper held the lead in the stretch, but was unable to hold off the winner and place fillies.  This race for Zapper paired her effort to a race at Arlington in early August and suggests to me that she is ready to move forward with a big effort.

Because this is a relatively short field of 8, 7 really if we discount the chances of Kazachka, it is tough to go any deeper for the exacta than 3 contenders.  If you choose the trifecta route you might want to throw the 2 Soonerette (6/1) into the mix.  Soonerette figures to go to the lead, so at least you will have one third of the trifecta for 7/8ths of the 1 mile race.  And how often do these front runners find the courage to stay on and pick up a piece of the purse, even if they can't get the main prize?

In summation.  Key number 8 Zapper Belle with #1 Ire and #6 Drama Drama.  Hopefully we'll crush the race with a win  and Zapper on top of an exacta with the other two contenders.  I'll also box the 1 and 6 in a separate exacta.  The plan being that if I am wrong about Zapper Belle, I will not be wrong about Drama Drama and Ire and at least get a consolation payoff to cover my overall investment.

The next race I want to discuss this week is the G1 Cigar at Aqueduct.  Here we get yet another girl against the boys battle of the sexes hype.  Like the Pago Hop we get another highly contentious race with a case to be made for nearly every entry.  In this race the toss out is #2 Associate (20/1) though I will admit that an upset by Associate would not be as jaw dropping as an upset by Kalachtka in the Pago Hop.

I went about 3 different ways in this race before finally settling on how to approach this race.  I'll just say up front that if Groupie Doll wins the race, as she very well may, then I will be totally wrong about this race.  Everyone reading this knows what a great filly Groupie Doll has turned out to be this year and I won't bore you with information you already know as if I were bringing it to you for the first time.  There is no reason the Groupster can't win this race except 1, she is coming off a huge effort 3 weeks ago at Santa Anita and 2, as good as she is, we have to acknowledge the theory of diminishing returns.  In other words, she has shown us her best.  It is highly improbable she will be better, therefore, it is highly probable she will not run as well this time as she did at Santa Anita. Some I know might call this bounce theory, I just call it common sense.  Her 2nd best may still be good enough, but she is up against some hombres and there is a small question as to how she will handle the distance.

At first I wanted to go with Stay Thirsty (7/2).  Stay Thirsty has the credentials to win this race, but, again, the distance is a concern.  In this case, the distance may not be enough for Stay Thirsty to uncoil his best effort.

Next I considered Hymn Book (6/1).  Hymn Book has the speed to win and finished 2nd in this race last year.  But again, the mile does not seem to be his natural distance.  Not that he can't win, but like Stay Thirsty, it may not be his optimal.

By now you may have guessed that I am looking for a true miler and in this race there is only one horse with the capability to win this race that fits the bill.  Jersey Town (4/1) will be my huckleberry, key horse, for this race. 

Jersey Town won this race in 2010 and in case you are one of those,"Yeah, but what have you done for me lately." types I will point out that 2 races back he won the G2 Kelso beating a field that included Shackleford, Tapizar, and To Honor and Serve (all recent G1 winners).  Certainly Jersey Town has not only the credentials, but the current form to win a race of this caliber.

From a betting standpoint the short field is again prohibitive for going much deeper than exacta's.  Play Jersey Town to win.  Play a 3 horse exacta box with Jersey Town, Stay Thirsty, and Hymn Book.  I am going to count on Groupie Doll getting hugely overplayed, but that may not happen. To add emphasis to my opinion, I will also key Jersey Town top and bottom with Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book.  Finally, I will play a just in case Groupie Doll/Jersey Town exacta to cover myself in the event Groupie Doll lives up to the hype.

Last week was a tough week for the Weasel.  In the If Winter Comes, I did call the audible to Beau Choix over Lubash based on the odds.  Unfortunately Beau Choix was compromised at the start and was only able to get up for 3rd.  I could live with that as just bad racing luck except that neither the winner or the place horses, Seal Cove and Abilio were on my radar.  As a result every horse I used with the exception of Beau Choix finished out of the money.  Swing and miss.

In the Commonwealth Turf at Chuchill Downs, I thought it was possible to play against the morning line favorite King David.  Apparently, I was not alone in that appraisal and King David went of at 5/1.  Chose Film Shot as my key in this race.  Alas, was disappointed as my 8/1 key horse finished well out of the money in 11th.  Did at least have some of the horses in the mix as the winner Lea brought home the bacon at a reasonable 5/2.  Unfortunately, King David came on late to snatch the Lea/Lockout exacta from me.  In this case 2 strikes and I'm out.  Here's hoping I, and you, have better luck this time.

Remember to follow me on Twitter @cobb42 during the day as I may comment on potential spot plays as they come up.