Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Breeders' Cup Hangover

www.cewreport.com
@cobb42

Recovering from major BC hangover today (this was originally written on Sunday).  What a great 2 days of racing.  Profitable as well.  You will not be bored with long winded recaps If that is what you wanted to read you have had plenty of opportunity or read reports from more sources then I could possibly enumerate.  Instead, a few brief comments and then on to the important stuff...how my selections worked out

Firstly, congrats to both Little Mike and Trinniberg.  Little Mike is a personal favorite of mine since he violates all the conventional rules racing on Turf.  People always say he won't get away with it this time, yet he almost always does.  The biggest surprise about Little Mike yesterday was that he didn't do it gate to wire for once.  A new dimension to his running style will make this gelding even more difficult to handle next year.

I did not have Trinniberg at all in this race as I thought he might have tailed off some as the year wore on.  If I have to be wrong, I want it to be about horses like Trinniberg, a local S. Florida horse that got his start here.  If you want success stories about immigrants coming to America, you need look not further than the owner/trainer connections of Trinniberg.  It is quite a story.

Groupie Doll and Wise Dan both made it look easy.  Too bad the connections of Frankel, touted by some to be the greatest race horse alive, didn't have the stones to come to America and meet our champion.  For my money Wise Dan has earned the title greatest race horse alive for his consistency, soundness, versatility, and the fact that he always makes it look so easy.

And of course the Classic was another for the ages.  This is the 3rd year in a row that Mike Smith has been a factor in the outcome of my Classic wager.  Two years ago I'm screming at the monitor urging on Blame to hold off the late charging Zenyatta (ridden, of course, by Mike Smith), last year I was yelling at the track, as I was in attendance, for Game On Dude to hold off the late charging Drosselmeyer (to no avail).  And this year I yelling at my television for Fort Larned to outlast a very game Mucho Macho Man.  To paraphrase a well known cliche,"Sometimes you get Smitty, and sometimes Smitty gets you."

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf I didn't see George Vancouver coming.  Upon post mortem review of the sheets I should have given him more consideration.  Noble Tune and Dundonell managed 2nd and 4th respectively, but this race is one for the loss column.

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was not one of my shining moments.  I was personally happy for Jim Rome as his Mizdirection ran a great race for the win; however, none of the other contenders really threatened.  I think the lesson to learn from this race for next year is to look for the locally based Cali horses and jockeys who are familiar with racing on this unique course.

One might think it is time to despair, and it would be had not Friday been such a strong day.  But yes, the Classic is still to come and The Weasel managed to come back strong in the weekend get out race the BC Classic.  It was the perfect set up as we had a horse who  already proven against many in this race and the very great advantage of connections who are not exactly household names among the casual race going public who only go to bet on the big days.  It's these people who should be donating to the bankrolls of us grinders.  If you can't take advantage of their uninformed opinions and herd-like mentalities you should find another hobby.

With the bulk of the wagering going to the head line horse Game On Dude (1.3-1) prices were spread out generously among the other contenders.  All we had to do was get the right one home on top and so we did with Fort Larned at (9-1).  Other contenders Mucho Macho Man and Flat Out were also mildly overlayed at 6-1 each.  Of course we also used Game On Dude.  I mean, we aren't stupid, man.  If the Gamester is on his game today, we at least want to get something back for our effort.  The recommended key, Fort Larned broke well and led every step of the way despite the best efforts of Mucho Macho Man and Mike Smith, made the day, and saved our gains from the previous day.
Ft. Larned paid 20.80 to win and 9.80 to place.  The exacta paid a delightful $62.70 for a mere dollar and the trifecta, if you went that deep, with Flat Out coming in third paid a nice $306.90 for the one dollar.

I really hope someone out there is benefitting from these selections up to now as I have done quite well for any readers out there since beginning my come back. If you have benefitted anyway from this effort, I'd love to here from you.  Show The Weasel some love.

 I don't know yet which tracks I'll be tackling this weekend but you can be sure I'll be trying to think outside the box, buck the conventional wisdom and come up with a winner or two at a price worth playing.  Together, let's take over the world!

No comments: