Soupy State bred and Keeneland Recap

It's accountability time for Chalk Eating Weasel.  Let's see how I did.


In the 2nd race at Belmont I recommended Miss Valentine as a viable contender at a price and this turned out to be so as she went off at 11/1.  Willet was much the best winning by 9.25 lengths and Miss Valentine survived a 3 horse photo for place triggering a $182.50 exacta payout.  Fortunately for me, a friend whom I was watching the races with pointed out the merits of Willet, and I held a winning exacta ticket for this race.  I try to do better for you.  However, if you had Miss Valentine to place the payoff was 10.00 which is not too shabby.

As an aside, my purpose is not to tell you what or how to bet, but to point out some horses which may be overlooked by other bettors and publications to help bolster your bottom lines.  Directing you to a live horse which out performs its odds is a success.

Race 5 was won by the even money favorite, Weekend Hideaway.  My recommended play in this race was Meet the Mets.  The betting public made Meet the Mets 8/1.  Unfortunately, Meet the Mets ran like the Mets played for much of this season and finished up the tracks.  The 25/1 Saint Arthur managed to get up for place.  I had dismissed Saint Arthur on the theory that if he couldn't win at Finger Lakes he could not win at Belmont.  Might have to reassess that theory.

For the sixth race, The Hudson, I suggested that ML and underlayed betting favorite Saginaw could be had and urged you to look to Shrewd One (9/2) and Mine Over Matter (6/1).  The order of finish, Mine Over Matter, Saginaw, Shrewd One would have paid you $15.00 if you went with MOM in the win column.  The Exacta paid 31.00 and the Tri 74.00.

In the eight race I liked Kelli Got Frosty at the ML of 6/1.  I should have known any viable contender put out by Rudy Rodriguez would get over bet.  So I turned me attention to Gee Linz (6/1) and Agilon (7/2).  Bad for me as I went for the price with Gee Linz who finished last.  Agilon managed a 2nd place finish and Kelli Got Frosty the show, but I can't really consider this one a success on any level.

I covered 3 races at Keeneland.  What happened here?

Race 7

I'll leave it up to the reader if you consider this a success.  Here's what I wrote about the Place finisher Hey Leroy (17/1)," but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy."  The other contenders I wrote of in this race disappointed, but if you were able to over come your instinctive aversion to long priced ponies, Hey Leroy payed an opulent 16.60 to place.

Race 9 the G2 Raven Run

Turns out Gypsy Robin is the real deal, at least for this race.  Lotta Lovin (26/1) ran like a 26/1 should run.  You know, when you are looking for prices, you are going to miss once in a while.  So sorry about the whiff here, but I think I make up for it in race 10, my best bet of the day.

Race 10

Here's a refresher, "If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics."

Here's a recap of the race results

Eddie Set Go 13.20 7.60 5.00, Proud Jared 18.20 8.20, Codoy 4.20  Exacta 8-3 193.40, Trifecta 1296.40, If only Smak Dab, who was among the first flight for 3/4's could have stayed on to round out what would have been a monster super.

I rest my case, you be the judge