Let's go to Keeneland!

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Last week I promised  that you would not bored with picks available from hundreds, maybe thousands, of other sources.  Such is the case at Belmont Park this week as none of the races available on the card did anything to stir my grumpy contrarian bones.  Sure there will be some upsets, this is horse racing after all.  But they are not forseeable to this old weasel.  I'll be Tweeting any spot plays I see and the betting plays out, but, for now, let's move ahead (not forward).

In the first race at Keeneland there may be a small opportunity for a disturbance in the force. The ML favorite  #2 Crypto Kitten (3/1) is trained by Maker and ridden by Leparoux.  A classic opportunity for an underlay.  My case against CK is simply where is the improvement going to come from for this  5 year old maiden?  Other's in this race have already run faster, and CK has only raced once in a less that good effort on synthetics.

Frankly, the betting public should see through the sham of CK as the ML favorite, in which case there is not likely to be an edge for the astute, contrarian investor.  However Jockey/Trainer combinations can be powerful influences on the tote board, so we need to be ready, just in case.

Number 4 Expressively (7/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old with room for improvement,  ran respectably at Turfway, and has a pair of earlier races on turf to run back to which are good enough to win here if she can duplicate those efforts.

The 6 horse Living My Dream (4/1) might be considered the "other Maker", as opposed to the "other Pletcher", in this race.  On paper this filly looks better than the ML favorite and is definitely more likely to get better.

Throw in the #5 Tola (4/1) who is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and there are 3 horses which rate to finish ahead of the ML favorite.  None of these will be tote busters, so don't blow your bank roll trying to make a big score, but you might be able to get your day off to a good start courtesy of those who can't see beyond Ramsey/Maker/Leparoux.

Have to skip all the way to the eight race at Keeneland for the next play.  Not really a contrarian idea, but this appears to be wide open without any one horse dominating the tote board.  The 6 horse Tapit Dancer (5/1)  is the kind of horse I love to play with because she is a consistently good type without being so dominant that she draws a lot of attention.  She fits real good here and I will use her to key all sorts of vertical exotics. The 7 horse, Eye Candy Annie (6/1) looks to be a strong 2nd choice to Tapit Dancer.  The price horse in this mix may wind up being the 3 Ausus (8/1).  Ausus has never run on turf and honestly, her breeding on the sire side does not suggest she will take to the surface with much vigor.  Daniel Peitz's trainer stats do not suggest he will do well in this scenario either; however, jockey James Graham is excellent on the turf.  The 3 year old Ausus's numbers are moving in the right direction, so she is fit and I am going to use her in e/bxactas, trifectas and supers.  You might say using Ausus is a bit contrarian, but I think it may be a bit of an esoteric stretch.  The 8 horse Zucchini Flower (4/1) will fill out the ticket for the exacta and top tri positions.  Others I like to fill out the bottom rungs of the super are the 9 Dame Marie (6/1), the 11 Funny Belle (15/1),  and the 12 Blushandbashful (12/1).

The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race.  The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort.  Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago.  He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off.  Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court.  The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well.  Remember, key the 3.

That's all I got.  I wanted to cover Laurel today as they have a nice card, but I'm running out of time. Follow me on Twitter as I will be making comments throughout the day.