www.cewreport.blogspot.com
@cobb42
Finally, the much ballyhooed and hyped Breeder's Cup weekend returns. I love the Breeder's Cup races although from a handicapping perspective I often find it very difficult to separate contenders and the entries are, for the most part usually very good. Because of that there is no reason to settle for short prices in these races.
I would like to give a special thanks to the folks at Thoro-Graph for the great and dedicated work they have performed in getting the Thoro-Graph sheets online under what must be very trying circumstances due to hurricane Sandy. Their office in Manhattan is like 2 or 3 blocks from the Hudson River near Battery Park, an area which was hit by a record setting storm surge. Speaking as a 20+ year resident of coastal south Florida, I have certainly ridden out more severe hurricanes in terms of wind, but the storm surge is obviously the story of Sandra, not to mention the blizzard in higher elevations like West Virginia. Blizzards are one thing I don't have to worry about here in the Miami area.
Meanwhile on to the business at hand, mainly finding some unique opportunities that maybe you won't find elsewhere.
I was a little underwhelmed with Friday's BC card. Not with the quality of the fields, but my ability to come up with any creative ideas as the ML for the most part seemed to fall in line with my own thinking.
The BC Fillies Turf for 2yo is one race where there may be an opportunity with a large and evenly matched field. There is nothing wrong with the 3/1 ML favorite #3 Sky Lantern, but in this big field of unpredictable 2yo's I'm willing to take a shot against her. #5 Spring Venture (5/1) is undefeated in 3 starts with figures on turf just a little less than Sky Lantern's. I would recomend making this confirmed winner a key horse using the #6 Watsdachance (4/1), #13 Flashy Ways (10/1), and the improving #4 Flotilla (8/1). The field large enough that you may be able to include Sky Lantern in the mix as well, that is assuming the odds follow the ML. This is clearly a race where you have to let the odds make your final decision for you. Should Sky Lantern, for some reason not be the betting favorite, elevate her in your ticket construction. Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race.
In the 8th race on Friday, the BC Filly and Mare Turf. I am not impressed with the ML favorites #4 The Fugue (7/2) and #10 Ridasiyna. I would prefer to use the #2 Zagora(8/1) keying her with #8 Nahrain (6/1), #12 In Lingerie (12/1) and #9 Marketing Mix (9/2). I like any of these better than the 2 ML favorites. Another large field, and another potentially large pay out if I'm right about the ML favorites.
I'm sure there will be other opportunities to come up in the day. I will also be trying my luck at Churchill Downs and Woodbine tomorrow and will try to Tweet out any spur of the moment ideas I come up with.
Good Luck and enjoy the racing this weekend, it doesn't get any better than this.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Sunday, October 28, 2012
10-27 Recap
www.cewreport.blogspot.com Follow me on Twitter @cobb42
I work in the medical device industry. The medical device industry is highly regulated and highly competitive. Accountability in my profession is paramount. I am required to deliver what I say I am going to deliver when I say I am going deliver it. If only our politicians were held to such standards.
Accountability is important to me personally as well. My goal is to find winning plays that are off radar of most prognosticators, including the so-called professionals. As an aside, has anyone ever noticed how many "professional" horse players seem to have other lines of work. But I digress.
How did I do yesterday. If I cannot help my readers win some nice paying mutuels, I will not waste your time or mine. So let's see what happened.
Yesterday I covered three races from Keeneland.
In race 1, I flatly wanted to take a stand against the morning line favorite Crypto Kitten. I thought that the betting public would be savvy enough to see through the making of Crytpo Kitten a favorite, and I was correct in that regard as he went of as the third choice in the betting at 3.8-1. I preferred 3 horses over CK. Expressively, Living My Dream and Tola. Expressively ran well managing a 2nd place finish. Living My Dream managed to fill out the super and Tola was completely out of the money. The winner of the race, Thus, was sent off at 4-1 by the bettors.
I am disappointed the I overlooked the merits of Thus. Outside of the fact that he was untried on synthetics, there was no reason not to give him consideration as Tiznow's offspring don't seem to have any issues running on the polytrack. A mere 4.60 place payoff can't be considered a success.
Trying to catch up at Laurel and keeping an eye on Belmont and Keeneland, I did not Tweet as often as I would have liked. I did catch couple winners early at Laurel and in the 4th at Keeneland, but there just isn't enough time when covering 3 tracks and trying to handicap to be as active in Twitter as I would like. However, I did not let you down entirely. Prior to the 5th at Keenland I tweeted that I did not like the favorite Judge Bill (2.4-1) and that I would be using the 2-3-5. Sometimes my arm just hurts from patting myself on the back. The finish was 3-5-2. The exacta paid $37.40 and the trifecta $135.00. Not a bad spot play, eh.
For the 8th race I got a set up in the sheets which I have found to be very productive. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer had run 5 times this year and ran the same figure each time out. The figure run was competitive for the race. I love to use this type of horse as a key in Exactas, Tris, and supers. Usually this type will give you a reliable performance, something I think you need from a key horse as well as a price. I should have known things were awry when Tapit Dancer was the 3.7-1 second choice. I stated that 7 Eye Candy Annie (8.5-1) was a solid 2nd place candidate, Ansus (11.5-1) looked promising in spite of his compromised turf pedigree and that Dame Marie (3.1-1) looked to be useful in the bottom rungs on the tri and super. All of this I got right, but without the key horse it all comes to nada. Tapit Dancer started out 9th in a field of 11 and was never a factor. Julio Garcia and Wesley Ward who were en fuego had the winner with Sisterhood (5.4-1).
Finally we come to the 9th race. A race to be proud of. I wrote,"The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3."
Dare I say,"Nailed It!" The order of finish was 4 Newsdad (8.5-1), 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (10-1), the key horse, 5 Take Charge Indy (4.6-1) and Salto (a very underlayed 3-2). Middie brought up the 5th position. If there had been a Big 5 type of vertical bet, I would have had that. As it was the exacta paid $185.20, the Trifecta $1584.20 the $2 superfecta a cool $4539.60 and $226.98 for a mere dime. As a matter of full disclosure, I do not personally like to play Tri's and supers preferring Win, Place and exactas. I had the 3 to win and place and exactas keying the 3 with the other contenders. This race made my day and I hope it made yours as well.
I will be back for the Breeder's cup and perhaps another track next week with a special Friday bonus addition. As usual, I will not waste your time trying to predict the winner of every race, that is simply a tiresome and unproductive exercise for me. I will look for areas where I think the odds will overlook a viable contender and point them out to you as I have done thus far. The good thing about the BC races is that the pools are so large, and all the horses so good that there is a good deal of randomness in the outcomes. For instance, last year I did not have alot of winners but I did have Musical Romance at 20-1, for a large amount, based simply on the awareness that horses that race all Summer long at Calder Race Course tend to be very fit and underrated. These are the types of things I will look for next week and pass along.
I work in the medical device industry. The medical device industry is highly regulated and highly competitive. Accountability in my profession is paramount. I am required to deliver what I say I am going to deliver when I say I am going deliver it. If only our politicians were held to such standards.
Accountability is important to me personally as well. My goal is to find winning plays that are off radar of most prognosticators, including the so-called professionals. As an aside, has anyone ever noticed how many "professional" horse players seem to have other lines of work. But I digress.
How did I do yesterday. If I cannot help my readers win some nice paying mutuels, I will not waste your time or mine. So let's see what happened.
Yesterday I covered three races from Keeneland.
In race 1, I flatly wanted to take a stand against the morning line favorite Crypto Kitten. I thought that the betting public would be savvy enough to see through the making of Crytpo Kitten a favorite, and I was correct in that regard as he went of as the third choice in the betting at 3.8-1. I preferred 3 horses over CK. Expressively, Living My Dream and Tola. Expressively ran well managing a 2nd place finish. Living My Dream managed to fill out the super and Tola was completely out of the money. The winner of the race, Thus, was sent off at 4-1 by the bettors.
I am disappointed the I overlooked the merits of Thus. Outside of the fact that he was untried on synthetics, there was no reason not to give him consideration as Tiznow's offspring don't seem to have any issues running on the polytrack. A mere 4.60 place payoff can't be considered a success.
Trying to catch up at Laurel and keeping an eye on Belmont and Keeneland, I did not Tweet as often as I would have liked. I did catch couple winners early at Laurel and in the 4th at Keeneland, but there just isn't enough time when covering 3 tracks and trying to handicap to be as active in Twitter as I would like. However, I did not let you down entirely. Prior to the 5th at Keenland I tweeted that I did not like the favorite Judge Bill (2.4-1) and that I would be using the 2-3-5. Sometimes my arm just hurts from patting myself on the back. The finish was 3-5-2. The exacta paid $37.40 and the trifecta $135.00. Not a bad spot play, eh.
For the 8th race I got a set up in the sheets which I have found to be very productive. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer had run 5 times this year and ran the same figure each time out. The figure run was competitive for the race. I love to use this type of horse as a key in Exactas, Tris, and supers. Usually this type will give you a reliable performance, something I think you need from a key horse as well as a price. I should have known things were awry when Tapit Dancer was the 3.7-1 second choice. I stated that 7 Eye Candy Annie (8.5-1) was a solid 2nd place candidate, Ansus (11.5-1) looked promising in spite of his compromised turf pedigree and that Dame Marie (3.1-1) looked to be useful in the bottom rungs on the tri and super. All of this I got right, but without the key horse it all comes to nada. Tapit Dancer started out 9th in a field of 11 and was never a factor. Julio Garcia and Wesley Ward who were en fuego had the winner with Sisterhood (5.4-1).
Finally we come to the 9th race. A race to be proud of. I wrote,"The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3."
Dare I say,"Nailed It!" The order of finish was 4 Newsdad (8.5-1), 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (10-1), the key horse, 5 Take Charge Indy (4.6-1) and Salto (a very underlayed 3-2). Middie brought up the 5th position. If there had been a Big 5 type of vertical bet, I would have had that. As it was the exacta paid $185.20, the Trifecta $1584.20 the $2 superfecta a cool $4539.60 and $226.98 for a mere dime. As a matter of full disclosure, I do not personally like to play Tri's and supers preferring Win, Place and exactas. I had the 3 to win and place and exactas keying the 3 with the other contenders. This race made my day and I hope it made yours as well.
I will be back for the Breeder's cup and perhaps another track next week with a special Friday bonus addition. As usual, I will not waste your time trying to predict the winner of every race, that is simply a tiresome and unproductive exercise for me. I will look for areas where I think the odds will overlook a viable contender and point them out to you as I have done thus far. The good thing about the BC races is that the pools are so large, and all the horses so good that there is a good deal of randomness in the outcomes. For instance, last year I did not have alot of winners but I did have Musical Romance at 20-1, for a large amount, based simply on the awareness that horses that race all Summer long at Calder Race Course tend to be very fit and underrated. These are the types of things I will look for next week and pass along.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Let's go to Keeneland!
atwww.cewreport.blogspot.com Follow me on Twitter @cobb42
Last week I promised that you would not bored with picks available from hundreds, maybe thousands, of other sources. Such is the case at Belmont Park this week as none of the races available on the card did anything to stir my grumpy contrarian bones. Sure there will be some upsets, this is horse racing after all. But they are not forseeable to this old weasel. I'll be Tweeting any spot plays I see and the betting plays out, but, for now, let's move ahead (not forward).
In the first race at Keeneland there may be a small opportunity for a disturbance in the force. The ML favorite #2 Crypto Kitten (3/1) is trained by Maker and ridden by Leparoux. A classic opportunity for an underlay. My case against CK is simply where is the improvement going to come from for this 5 year old maiden? Other's in this race have already run faster, and CK has only raced once in a less that good effort on synthetics.
Frankly, the betting public should see through the sham of CK as the ML favorite, in which case there is not likely to be an edge for the astute, contrarian investor. However Jockey/Trainer combinations can be powerful influences on the tote board, so we need to be ready, just in case.
Number 4 Expressively (7/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old with room for improvement, ran respectably at Turfway, and has a pair of earlier races on turf to run back to which are good enough to win here if she can duplicate those efforts.
The 6 horse Living My Dream (4/1) might be considered the "other Maker", as opposed to the "other Pletcher", in this race. On paper this filly looks better than the ML favorite and is definitely more likely to get better.
Throw in the #5 Tola (4/1) who is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and there are 3 horses which rate to finish ahead of the ML favorite. None of these will be tote busters, so don't blow your bank roll trying to make a big score, but you might be able to get your day off to a good start courtesy of those who can't see beyond Ramsey/Maker/Leparoux.
Have to skip all the way to the eight race at Keeneland for the next play. Not really a contrarian idea, but this appears to be wide open without any one horse dominating the tote board. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer (5/1) is the kind of horse I love to play with because she is a consistently good type without being so dominant that she draws a lot of attention. She fits real good here and I will use her to key all sorts of vertical exotics. The 7 horse, Eye Candy Annie (6/1) looks to be a strong 2nd choice to Tapit Dancer. The price horse in this mix may wind up being the 3 Ausus (8/1). Ausus has never run on turf and honestly, her breeding on the sire side does not suggest she will take to the surface with much vigor. Daniel Peitz's trainer stats do not suggest he will do well in this scenario either; however, jockey James Graham is excellent on the turf. The 3 year old Ausus's numbers are moving in the right direction, so she is fit and I am going to use her in e/bxactas, trifectas and supers. You might say using Ausus is a bit contrarian, but I think it may be a bit of an esoteric stretch. The 8 horse Zucchini Flower (4/1) will fill out the ticket for the exacta and top tri positions. Others I like to fill out the bottom rungs of the super are the 9 Dame Marie (6/1), the 11 Funny Belle (15/1), and the 12 Blushandbashful (12/1).
The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3.
That's all I got. I wanted to cover Laurel today as they have a nice card, but I'm running out of time. Follow me on Twitter as I will be making comments throughout the day.
Last week I promised that you would not bored with picks available from hundreds, maybe thousands, of other sources. Such is the case at Belmont Park this week as none of the races available on the card did anything to stir my grumpy contrarian bones. Sure there will be some upsets, this is horse racing after all. But they are not forseeable to this old weasel. I'll be Tweeting any spot plays I see and the betting plays out, but, for now, let's move ahead (not forward).
In the first race at Keeneland there may be a small opportunity for a disturbance in the force. The ML favorite #2 Crypto Kitten (3/1) is trained by Maker and ridden by Leparoux. A classic opportunity for an underlay. My case against CK is simply where is the improvement going to come from for this 5 year old maiden? Other's in this race have already run faster, and CK has only raced once in a less that good effort on synthetics.
Frankly, the betting public should see through the sham of CK as the ML favorite, in which case there is not likely to be an edge for the astute, contrarian investor. However Jockey/Trainer combinations can be powerful influences on the tote board, so we need to be ready, just in case.
Number 4 Expressively (7/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old with room for improvement, ran respectably at Turfway, and has a pair of earlier races on turf to run back to which are good enough to win here if she can duplicate those efforts.
The 6 horse Living My Dream (4/1) might be considered the "other Maker", as opposed to the "other Pletcher", in this race. On paper this filly looks better than the ML favorite and is definitely more likely to get better.
Throw in the #5 Tola (4/1) who is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and there are 3 horses which rate to finish ahead of the ML favorite. None of these will be tote busters, so don't blow your bank roll trying to make a big score, but you might be able to get your day off to a good start courtesy of those who can't see beyond Ramsey/Maker/Leparoux.
Have to skip all the way to the eight race at Keeneland for the next play. Not really a contrarian idea, but this appears to be wide open without any one horse dominating the tote board. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer (5/1) is the kind of horse I love to play with because she is a consistently good type without being so dominant that she draws a lot of attention. She fits real good here and I will use her to key all sorts of vertical exotics. The 7 horse, Eye Candy Annie (6/1) looks to be a strong 2nd choice to Tapit Dancer. The price horse in this mix may wind up being the 3 Ausus (8/1). Ausus has never run on turf and honestly, her breeding on the sire side does not suggest she will take to the surface with much vigor. Daniel Peitz's trainer stats do not suggest he will do well in this scenario either; however, jockey James Graham is excellent on the turf. The 3 year old Ausus's numbers are moving in the right direction, so she is fit and I am going to use her in e/bxactas, trifectas and supers. You might say using Ausus is a bit contrarian, but I think it may be a bit of an esoteric stretch. The 8 horse Zucchini Flower (4/1) will fill out the ticket for the exacta and top tri positions. Others I like to fill out the bottom rungs of the super are the 9 Dame Marie (6/1), the 11 Funny Belle (15/1), and the 12 Blushandbashful (12/1).
The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3.
That's all I got. I wanted to cover Laurel today as they have a nice card, but I'm running out of time. Follow me on Twitter as I will be making comments throughout the day.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Soupy State bred and Keeneland Recap
It's accountability time for Chalk Eating Weasel. Let's see how I did.
In the 2nd race at Belmont I recommended Miss Valentine as a viable contender at a price and this turned out to be so as she went off at 11/1. Willet was much the best winning by 9.25 lengths and Miss Valentine survived a 3 horse photo for place triggering a $182.50 exacta payout. Fortunately for me, a friend whom I was watching the races with pointed out the merits of Willet, and I held a winning exacta ticket for this race. I try to do better for you. However, if you had Miss Valentine to place the payoff was 10.00 which is not too shabby.
As an aside, my purpose is not to tell you what or how to bet, but to point out some horses which may be overlooked by other bettors and publications to help bolster your bottom lines. Directing you to a live horse which out performs its odds is a success.
Race 5 was won by the even money favorite, Weekend Hideaway. My recommended play in this race was Meet the Mets. The betting public made Meet the Mets 8/1. Unfortunately, Meet the Mets ran like the Mets played for much of this season and finished up the tracks. The 25/1 Saint Arthur managed to get up for place. I had dismissed Saint Arthur on the theory that if he couldn't win at Finger Lakes he could not win at Belmont. Might have to reassess that theory.
For the sixth race, The Hudson, I suggested that ML and underlayed betting favorite Saginaw could be had and urged you to look to Shrewd One (9/2) and Mine Over Matter (6/1). The order of finish, Mine Over Matter, Saginaw, Shrewd One would have paid you $15.00 if you went with MOM in the win column. The Exacta paid 31.00 and the Tri 74.00.
In the eight race I liked Kelli Got Frosty at the ML of 6/1. I should have known any viable contender put out by Rudy Rodriguez would get over bet. So I turned me attention to Gee Linz (6/1) and Agilon (7/2). Bad for me as I went for the price with Gee Linz who finished last. Agilon managed a 2nd place finish and Kelli Got Frosty the show, but I can't really consider this one a success on any level.
I covered 3 races at Keeneland. What happened here?
Race 7
I'll leave it up to the reader if you consider this a success. Here's what I wrote about the Place finisher Hey Leroy (17/1)," but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy." The other contenders I wrote of in this race disappointed, but if you were able to over come your instinctive aversion to long priced ponies, Hey Leroy payed an opulent 16.60 to place.
Race 9 the G2 Raven Run
Turns out Gypsy Robin is the real deal, at least for this race. Lotta Lovin (26/1) ran like a 26/1 should run. You know, when you are looking for prices, you are going to miss once in a while. So sorry about the whiff here, but I think I make up for it in race 10, my best bet of the day.
Race 10
Here's a refresher, "If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics."
Here's a recap of the race results
Eddie Set Go 13.20 7.60 5.00, Proud Jared 18.20 8.20, Codoy 4.20 Exacta 8-3 193.40, Trifecta 1296.40, If only Smak Dab, who was among the first flight for 3/4's could have stayed on to round out what would have been a monster super.
I rest my case, you be the judge
In the 2nd race at Belmont I recommended Miss Valentine as a viable contender at a price and this turned out to be so as she went off at 11/1. Willet was much the best winning by 9.25 lengths and Miss Valentine survived a 3 horse photo for place triggering a $182.50 exacta payout. Fortunately for me, a friend whom I was watching the races with pointed out the merits of Willet, and I held a winning exacta ticket for this race. I try to do better for you. However, if you had Miss Valentine to place the payoff was 10.00 which is not too shabby.
As an aside, my purpose is not to tell you what or how to bet, but to point out some horses which may be overlooked by other bettors and publications to help bolster your bottom lines. Directing you to a live horse which out performs its odds is a success.
Race 5 was won by the even money favorite, Weekend Hideaway. My recommended play in this race was Meet the Mets. The betting public made Meet the Mets 8/1. Unfortunately, Meet the Mets ran like the Mets played for much of this season and finished up the tracks. The 25/1 Saint Arthur managed to get up for place. I had dismissed Saint Arthur on the theory that if he couldn't win at Finger Lakes he could not win at Belmont. Might have to reassess that theory.
For the sixth race, The Hudson, I suggested that ML and underlayed betting favorite Saginaw could be had and urged you to look to Shrewd One (9/2) and Mine Over Matter (6/1). The order of finish, Mine Over Matter, Saginaw, Shrewd One would have paid you $15.00 if you went with MOM in the win column. The Exacta paid 31.00 and the Tri 74.00.
In the eight race I liked Kelli Got Frosty at the ML of 6/1. I should have known any viable contender put out by Rudy Rodriguez would get over bet. So I turned me attention to Gee Linz (6/1) and Agilon (7/2). Bad for me as I went for the price with Gee Linz who finished last. Agilon managed a 2nd place finish and Kelli Got Frosty the show, but I can't really consider this one a success on any level.
I covered 3 races at Keeneland. What happened here?
Race 7
I'll leave it up to the reader if you consider this a success. Here's what I wrote about the Place finisher Hey Leroy (17/1)," but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy." The other contenders I wrote of in this race disappointed, but if you were able to over come your instinctive aversion to long priced ponies, Hey Leroy payed an opulent 16.60 to place.
Race 9 the G2 Raven Run
Turns out Gypsy Robin is the real deal, at least for this race. Lotta Lovin (26/1) ran like a 26/1 should run. You know, when you are looking for prices, you are going to miss once in a while. So sorry about the whiff here, but I think I make up for it in race 10, my best bet of the day.
Race 10
Here's a refresher, "If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics."
Here's a recap of the race results
Eddie Set Go 13.20 7.60 5.00, Proud Jared 18.20 8.20, Codoy 4.20 Exacta 8-3 193.40, Trifecta 1296.40, If only Smak Dab, who was among the first flight for 3/4's could have stayed on to round out what would have been a monster super.
I rest my case, you be the judge
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