If you've been paying attention, you have already noted that there have been some scratches in the Lady Secret. No doubt the sloppy going has something to do with this. Among the scratches is my top selection Spritely. No worries, a check the PP's of the remaining contenders shows that they have all shown an ability to handle the off going. Just slide everyone up one slot in the contender list.
An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.
Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!
One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.
This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep
Good luck
Sunday, August 2, 2009
From the Spa To The Shore
Back from the simulcast room at Gulfstream where I spent the day pondering the puzzles of Saratoga. Forever Together was no puzzle in frustrating Rutherienne once again. Warrior's Reward did run better this time, as expected, but not well enough to beat Kensei in the Jim Dandy. Good day for Steve Asmussen winning the W. Va Derby then turning around for the Jim Dandy to complete the exacta. Just missed with Strawberry Tart. Since I haven't actually seen the race, I don't really know what happened to the other contenders.
Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.
An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.
At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.
The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.
The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.
Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.
I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.
Good Luck until next time
The 3rd choice
Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.
An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.
At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.
The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.
The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.
Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.
I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.
Good Luck until next time
The 3rd choice
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Life Happens
I'm sorry its been so long but sometimes life gets in the way of the things we'd rather be doing. Two weeks ago I was up to Orlando with my wife and daughter for the UCF open house. Last week, I was having ATT U-Verse installed and was down all Saturday morning and into the afternoon. I have been forced to work through lunch at my job which cuts down some of my most productive handicapping time. This morning my wife went out to a dead battery in her car, so here I sit with 90 minutes to first post at Calder and no races on the card handicapped.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
Friday, July 17, 2009
HANA Goes To Mountaineer
No Public Handicapper picks this week. Taking the daughter to the University of Central Florida for an open house. Don't even know what the races are yet and won't have time to look at them.
However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.
My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.
The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.
The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.
Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over
However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.
My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.
The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.
The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.
Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over
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