Barbaro's full brother, Nicanor makes his racing debut at Gulfstream Park today in the 8th race of the day. I'll be there and give you a full report with pictures and all after the race. Nicanor is trained by Michael Matz and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
Today is the last day of the Public handicappers Winter of our Discontent contest. Two of the races are at GP, the G3 Holy Bull and the G1 Donn Handicap. I didn't have time to do the other two races this week, but here is my analysis of the two big races at GP today.
G3 Holy Bull Stakes
#2 Danger To Society
3-1
9-2
#10 West Side Bernie
4-1
6-1
#11 Beethoven
4-1
6-1
#8 Idol Maker
6-1
9-1
#2 Impressive Allowance winner gets favorable post draw. #10 2yo G3 winner will be hampered by outside post position #11 Another 2yo G2 winner will be hampered by the extreme outside post position. #8 Most impressive of the rest with Pletcher/Velasquez combo, but still has to deal with pp8. Outside post positions at 9 furlongs are very difficult from 8 out.
G1 Donn Handicap
#2 Albertus Maximus
8-5
5-2
#10 Einstein
6-1
9-1
#3 Anak Nakai
6-1
9-1
#7 Arson Squad
6-1
9-1
#2 Along with Einstein, clearly the best but gets the luck of the PP draw. Outside post diminishes the chances of a great horse and Pitts is only 5% off layoff #3 Gets much improved post from the Hal's Hope race and should look better. #7 G2 winner is 3 for 5 at the distance. Dutrow is 25% off layoff.
I'll see you later tonight or tomorrow with some pictures of Barbaro's baby brother
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Sunshine Millions Lessons Learned
Nobody wins everyday, and anyone who claims to is a prevaricator. I have played the races on 12 days so far this year. I have had 6 winning days and 6 losing days. Yesterday was a losing day. I don't mind losing days so much, because there is always something to be learned from the losses. The following is what I learned yesterday.
1. If Todd Pletcher has a first time starter that cost 3.7 million at auction, Dunkirk, the horse is automatically a contender. The following description of Dunkirk's race comes straight from the results chart, "DUNKIRK rated after breaking slowly, was forced wait [sic] for room in behind a wall of horses on the turn, angled six wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to gain command inside the eight pole, then drew away."
While watching the race and keeping an eye on the horse everyone was talking about, I thought there was no way it was going to win the race. Then Dunkirk simply turned on the after-burners in that final furlong. It wasn't even close winning by an easy 5 3/4 length. Imagine if the trip for Dunkirk had been less troubled. Dunkirk paid 5.40 to win.
Todd Pletcher looking good and feeling good after Dunkirk's romp
2. Richard Dutrow is lethal 1st time with a horse. Remember that question I asked about This One's For Phil? Even though Phil was going Turf to Dirt and turning back in distance after leading the first two calls, one of my favorite angles, I still didn't think he was good enough to win, which he did paying $25.40.
Dutrow is 32% with a +0.40 ROI 1st time with a horse. This horse had two strong angles going for it that I ignored completely.
I'm sure there is more to learn, and I'll share them with you as the post mortem progresses.
As for my prognostications, 2 winners out of 4, but I'm not especially proud of that record. I totally whiffed on the Dash thanks to Phil.
In the Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream, Bel Air Sizzle decided she wasn't ready to go when they opened the gate spotting the field, at least, a full second head start. It's amazing she didn't finish dead last. Also the anticipated speed duel never materialized as the front-runners set reasonable fractions.
I did, at least manage to have the winners of the Santa Anita races I covered. I played Presious Passion to win in the Turf Race and Elvis Trujillo gave me a brilliant ride and PP did his best to hold 2nd giving me the consolation exacta prize.
I didn't see the 8th race, but know Georgie Boy took the honors although had I played the race I would have been on Sok Sok who did not do as well.
More later
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Sunshine Millions
Ok, apparently nobody read last post or nobody has any insight they are interested in sharing, so I'll press on.
Today is the Sunshine Millions day when California and Florida breds criss-cross the country for some pretty decent prize money.
Public Handicapper http://www.publichandicapper.com/ has chosen 4 of these races, 2 from GP and 2 from SA, as the contest races for this week. So here we go.
Gulfstream Park first
The 7th race on the card is the 250k Sunshine Million Dash for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs
Top selection is Marty Wolfson's You Luckie Mann. Breaking from the outside 11th post, he has the tactical ability to settle into a good spot. Look for You Luckie Mann to move forward in this 2nd off Layoff race.
The 2nd choice is Kelly Leak who will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for Michael Machowsky. KL is coming off a good turf effort and won the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar.
Had to kind of stretch to find 3rd and 4th contenders in what I think is a fairly thin field but finally settled on Backbackbackgone and Southern Exchange on the inside posts.
The selections and odds line shape up like this.
#11 You Lucky Mann: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#7 Kelly Leak: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#2 Backbackbackgone: 4-1 fair odds, 6-1 overlay odds
#1 Southern Exchange: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
The 8th race is the 500k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Stakes for 4yo and up.
Wild Promises, winner 11 time in 16 tries returns to the crosstown track after having her way at Calder Race course a month ago. However, this time may be different as this is a speed filled race and a turf course that is not particularly friendly to early speed. If she could get the lead all to herself, I'd make her the favorite, but since the fight for the early lead is going to be contentious, I think the race sets up for a closer like Bel Air Sizzle.
Bel Air Sizzle will have the lovely Chantal Sutherland (sorry for the blatant sexism, but it really didn't influence my decision, really) aboard and has come close in a couple of G2 races at Del Mar and Hollywood.
Still have to respect Wild Promises who I make to be the 2nd choice. The third choice is a pressing type runner, so we have the gamut of running styles covered here, Zee Zee trained by Richard Dutrow and ridden by Robbie Albarado. May the best running style win.
#8 Bel Air Sizzle: 9-5 fair odds, 3-1 overlay odds
#2 Wild Promises: 5-2 fair odds, 4-1 overlay odds
#5 Zee Zee overlay odds: 5-1 fair odds, 8-1 overlay odds
Moving over to the left coast.
The 500k Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes for 4 year olds and up at a mile and an eigth.
Another heavy early pace rest that should set up well for the closing Soldier's Dancer. A Grade 3 winner for David Vivian has Rafael Bejarano in the irons. We do have to respect some of the speed horses as one never knows how these races actually develop until they get run. That's why some call this gambling. Carla Gaines Lucky J. H. with Victor Espinoza on board looks impressive and will be stretching out after a couple of good sprint efforts. Presious Passion is another early speedster who has demonstrated that distance is not an issue. Elvis Trujillo (he is an up and comer you'll be hearing alot from in the next few years) gets the mount. And finally, back to another closer, mostly because on grass anything can happen and so much depends on the trip and a little bit of racing luck, don't be completely shocked if Icy Atlantic shows up in the winner's circle, I won't be.
#8 Soldier's Dancer: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#10 Lucky J. H.: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#3 Presious Passion: 9-2 fair odds, 7-1 overlay odds
#7 Icy Atlantic: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
Finally, the 300k Sunshine Millions Sprint for 4 year olds and up at 6 furlongs
When I look at races like this the first thing I always look for is who has won Graded Stakes events, which, I guess, makes class one of my primary considerations. That's how I land on Georgie Boy as my number one for this race. Plus, it always seems that Garrett Gomez is winning these kinds of races. In Summation is another deserving respect. Clement Christophe always seems to have his horses ready and Rafael Bejarano doesn't have to take a back seat to anyone. Sok Sok is trained by Steve Asmussen who is bringing his primary jockey Sean Bridgmohan out from the Fair Grounds for this race. I remember last year at GP, I think it was SS Millions day, Asmussen had a horse running in a big race that was being relatively ignored at 5-1 and thinking,"This horse really shouldn't be that high in the odds." I recommended the horse to my wife, but stayed off it myself. She made a nice exacta with the Asmussen horse on top. Something similar may happen here. Finally, I can't forget my local CRC runner Yesbyjimminy who has done just about everything he can at Calder. Main knocks on him will be how well does he travel and how well does he take to the synthetic track. Could be a surprise.
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1 fair odds
9-2 overlay odds
#9 In Summation
7-2 fair odds
5-1 overlay odds
#5 Sok Sok
4-1 fair odds
6-1 overlay odds
#11 Yesbyjimminy
6-1 fair odds
9-1 overlay odds
That's it for today folks. Let me know if any of this was helpful. Good Luck.
Oh by the way the next book review will be Joseph J. Tuttle's The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer. You won't want to miss it, I promise
Today is the Sunshine Millions day when California and Florida breds criss-cross the country for some pretty decent prize money.
Public Handicapper http://www.publichandicapper.com/ has chosen 4 of these races, 2 from GP and 2 from SA, as the contest races for this week. So here we go.
Gulfstream Park first
The 7th race on the card is the 250k Sunshine Million Dash for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs
Top selection is Marty Wolfson's You Luckie Mann. Breaking from the outside 11th post, he has the tactical ability to settle into a good spot. Look for You Luckie Mann to move forward in this 2nd off Layoff race.
The 2nd choice is Kelly Leak who will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for Michael Machowsky. KL is coming off a good turf effort and won the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar.
Had to kind of stretch to find 3rd and 4th contenders in what I think is a fairly thin field but finally settled on Backbackbackgone and Southern Exchange on the inside posts.
The selections and odds line shape up like this.
#11 You Lucky Mann: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#7 Kelly Leak: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#2 Backbackbackgone: 4-1 fair odds, 6-1 overlay odds
#1 Southern Exchange: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
The 8th race is the 500k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Stakes for 4yo and up.
Wild Promises, winner 11 time in 16 tries returns to the crosstown track after having her way at Calder Race course a month ago. However, this time may be different as this is a speed filled race and a turf course that is not particularly friendly to early speed. If she could get the lead all to herself, I'd make her the favorite, but since the fight for the early lead is going to be contentious, I think the race sets up for a closer like Bel Air Sizzle.
Bel Air Sizzle will have the lovely Chantal Sutherland (sorry for the blatant sexism, but it really didn't influence my decision, really) aboard and has come close in a couple of G2 races at Del Mar and Hollywood.
Still have to respect Wild Promises who I make to be the 2nd choice. The third choice is a pressing type runner, so we have the gamut of running styles covered here, Zee Zee trained by Richard Dutrow and ridden by Robbie Albarado. May the best running style win.
#8 Bel Air Sizzle: 9-5 fair odds, 3-1 overlay odds
#2 Wild Promises: 5-2 fair odds, 4-1 overlay odds
#5 Zee Zee overlay odds: 5-1 fair odds, 8-1 overlay odds
Moving over to the left coast.
The 500k Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes for 4 year olds and up at a mile and an eigth.
Another heavy early pace rest that should set up well for the closing Soldier's Dancer. A Grade 3 winner for David Vivian has Rafael Bejarano in the irons. We do have to respect some of the speed horses as one never knows how these races actually develop until they get run. That's why some call this gambling. Carla Gaines Lucky J. H. with Victor Espinoza on board looks impressive and will be stretching out after a couple of good sprint efforts. Presious Passion is another early speedster who has demonstrated that distance is not an issue. Elvis Trujillo (he is an up and comer you'll be hearing alot from in the next few years) gets the mount. And finally, back to another closer, mostly because on grass anything can happen and so much depends on the trip and a little bit of racing luck, don't be completely shocked if Icy Atlantic shows up in the winner's circle, I won't be.
#8 Soldier's Dancer: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#10 Lucky J. H.: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#3 Presious Passion: 9-2 fair odds, 7-1 overlay odds
#7 Icy Atlantic: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
Finally, the 300k Sunshine Millions Sprint for 4 year olds and up at 6 furlongs
When I look at races like this the first thing I always look for is who has won Graded Stakes events, which, I guess, makes class one of my primary considerations. That's how I land on Georgie Boy as my number one for this race. Plus, it always seems that Garrett Gomez is winning these kinds of races. In Summation is another deserving respect. Clement Christophe always seems to have his horses ready and Rafael Bejarano doesn't have to take a back seat to anyone. Sok Sok is trained by Steve Asmussen who is bringing his primary jockey Sean Bridgmohan out from the Fair Grounds for this race. I remember last year at GP, I think it was SS Millions day, Asmussen had a horse running in a big race that was being relatively ignored at 5-1 and thinking,"This horse really shouldn't be that high in the odds." I recommended the horse to my wife, but stayed off it myself. She made a nice exacta with the Asmussen horse on top. Something similar may happen here. Finally, I can't forget my local CRC runner Yesbyjimminy who has done just about everything he can at Calder. Main knocks on him will be how well does he travel and how well does he take to the synthetic track. Could be a surprise.
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1 fair odds
9-2 overlay odds
#9 In Summation
7-2 fair odds
5-1 overlay odds
#5 Sok Sok
4-1 fair odds
6-1 overlay odds
#11 Yesbyjimminy
6-1 fair odds
9-1 overlay odds
That's it for today folks. Let me know if any of this was helpful. Good Luck.
Oh by the way the next book review will be Joseph J. Tuttle's The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer. You won't want to miss it, I promise
Friday, January 23, 2009
This One's For Phil
Just a short one as I'm currently going through tomorrow's card for Gulfstream Park. The 7th race is 250k Sunshine Millions Dash. There is one horse in the race, This One's For Phil. Phil used to be trained by Kathleen O'Connell, a more than competent local trainer who does most of her racing at Calder and Tampa Bay with an occasional entry at GP.
I noticed that Phil has moved over to Richard Dutrow's barn. No sale as the owner is the same. No doubt, the owner thinks Phil may be too big for the limited S. Florida scene. What am I to make of this? If anyone out there knows any of the players in this scenario and can shed a little light on the topic, I'd be much obliged. If I see Ms. O'Connell tomorrow I'll ask her myself, but she'll probably be busy at Tampa.
I noticed that Phil has moved over to Richard Dutrow's barn. No sale as the owner is the same. No doubt, the owner thinks Phil may be too big for the limited S. Florida scene. What am I to make of this? If anyone out there knows any of the players in this scenario and can shed a little light on the topic, I'd be much obliged. If I see Ms. O'Connell tomorrow I'll ask her myself, but she'll probably be busy at Tampa.
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