Not much to write home about regarding yesterday's prognostications from KY Downs. But then, you can't say I didn't warn you. Those races didn't cost me any money. Hope you did better.
Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.
In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.
The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.
The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.
The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.
Race 10 The Woodbine Mile
This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.
#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.
The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.
The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.
The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.
That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.
Good Luck
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Turfing It At KY Downs
Coming to you in two installments this week as the Public Handicapper weekend stakes will involve two race from Woodbine to be run tomorrow.
I'm kind of taking the weekend off this week but must play the Handicapper races. Actually I don't "have" to play them. Just feeling obligated to make selections for as many of the PH races as I can.
Two wrap up last week's action, three out of four ain't too bad. Might've been 4 of 4 if Gozzip Girl could've kept from stumbling over her own feet. However, that, my friends is why you don't play 2 to 5 favorites. Just sit and watch those races.
Unfortunately, the other 3 races turned out to be real chalk fests. I'd rather be 1 for 4 with an 18-1 Bullsbay than 3 for 4 with last weeks results.
Today's races come to us courtesy of Kentucky Downs, a quaint little turf course I really don't know all that much about, so keep that in mind and cut me some slack this week.
The first race is a 6 furlong affair known as the Kentucky Cup Turf Dash for 3 year olds and up. Looking at the course configuration, I would think the outside posts would be at a disadvantage here, but then last year Fort Prado managed to finish 2nd starting from the 9th post. You have to ask yourself did the outside post hinder Fort Prado from winning, enable him to overachieve, or have no real influence on the outcome one way or the other. I don't know the answer to that question.
The top choice for this race is #4 Guam Typhoon. This is strictly an angle play as Guam Typhoon is turning back from 9 furlongs to six after setting the fractions at the longer distance last 2 out at Saratoga. The caveat here is that Guam Typhoon has never raced on grass so some faith that trainer Ian Wilkes knows what he's doing here. Don't be looking for Guam Typhoon to be setting the fractions here. That is not how he has won sprints in the past. I suspect Borel will take him back off the pace and go for a big finish. But then again, I'm not very good at predicting race strategy.
I like the #9 Yankee Injunuity. Toss out his last over a yielding surface. If the footing is firm I don't see how he can miss being a factor in today's race. Be aware that the forecast for Franklin, Ky is for showers. Something to take into consideration as Yankee Injunuity sometimes seems to falter on soft courses.
The third pick is #6 Hold The Salt ridden my the 2nd all time leading wins female jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Hold The Salt is 2 for 2 at the distance and is 2 for 2 at Kentucky Downs including winning last years edition of this very race.
Finally I'll give #7 Just For Keeps a shot here. Michael Maker teams up with Orlando Mojica at a 41% win rate with a positive ROI. Just For Keeps comes off the bench not having a race since April, but Maker excels as a trainer in this category as well. Just For Keeps was very competitive early this year winning his first two starts before fading badly in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland. If he can regain his early form, he may be the price horse of the day.
The other race for today is the 1 1/2 mile Kentucky Cup Turf-G3 for 3 and up
I found this race to be a real head scratcher so take that under advisement before using anything I say here.
#2 Timeless Fashion is 9 for 5 lifetime and has never finished out of the money. This will be the strongest field this lightly raced 5 year old has faced and wouldn't be surprising at all to me if he goes all the way here
#5 My Happiness is the 2nd choice and seems recently to have been racing well behind better. Calvin Borel is in the driver's seat and maybe the combination of a lesser field and BoRail can push this won to the front at the wire.
#4 Rumor Has It is the 3rd choice on the basis of having won the race last year. That's not much to go on but its all I got in this contentious field. He has been running well lately and there aren't any "great" horses in this race. So, why not a repeat performance?
#12 Deal Making is a lightly raced 4 year old looking to make his first big score. 3 for 8 on the turf he comes 3rd off the layoff for Graham Motion.
Well that's all for Ky Downs. I'll post the Woodbine races a little later today or tomorrow morning. Until then.
I'm kind of taking the weekend off this week but must play the Handicapper races. Actually I don't "have" to play them. Just feeling obligated to make selections for as many of the PH races as I can.
Two wrap up last week's action, three out of four ain't too bad. Might've been 4 of 4 if Gozzip Girl could've kept from stumbling over her own feet. However, that, my friends is why you don't play 2 to 5 favorites. Just sit and watch those races.
Unfortunately, the other 3 races turned out to be real chalk fests. I'd rather be 1 for 4 with an 18-1 Bullsbay than 3 for 4 with last weeks results.
Today's races come to us courtesy of Kentucky Downs, a quaint little turf course I really don't know all that much about, so keep that in mind and cut me some slack this week.
The first race is a 6 furlong affair known as the Kentucky Cup Turf Dash for 3 year olds and up. Looking at the course configuration, I would think the outside posts would be at a disadvantage here, but then last year Fort Prado managed to finish 2nd starting from the 9th post. You have to ask yourself did the outside post hinder Fort Prado from winning, enable him to overachieve, or have no real influence on the outcome one way or the other. I don't know the answer to that question.
The top choice for this race is #4 Guam Typhoon. This is strictly an angle play as Guam Typhoon is turning back from 9 furlongs to six after setting the fractions at the longer distance last 2 out at Saratoga. The caveat here is that Guam Typhoon has never raced on grass so some faith that trainer Ian Wilkes knows what he's doing here. Don't be looking for Guam Typhoon to be setting the fractions here. That is not how he has won sprints in the past. I suspect Borel will take him back off the pace and go for a big finish. But then again, I'm not very good at predicting race strategy.
I like the #9 Yankee Injunuity. Toss out his last over a yielding surface. If the footing is firm I don't see how he can miss being a factor in today's race. Be aware that the forecast for Franklin, Ky is for showers. Something to take into consideration as Yankee Injunuity sometimes seems to falter on soft courses.
The third pick is #6 Hold The Salt ridden my the 2nd all time leading wins female jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Hold The Salt is 2 for 2 at the distance and is 2 for 2 at Kentucky Downs including winning last years edition of this very race.
Finally I'll give #7 Just For Keeps a shot here. Michael Maker teams up with Orlando Mojica at a 41% win rate with a positive ROI. Just For Keeps comes off the bench not having a race since April, but Maker excels as a trainer in this category as well. Just For Keeps was very competitive early this year winning his first two starts before fading badly in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland. If he can regain his early form, he may be the price horse of the day.
The other race for today is the 1 1/2 mile Kentucky Cup Turf-G3 for 3 and up
I found this race to be a real head scratcher so take that under advisement before using anything I say here.
#2 Timeless Fashion is 9 for 5 lifetime and has never finished out of the money. This will be the strongest field this lightly raced 5 year old has faced and wouldn't be surprising at all to me if he goes all the way here
#5 My Happiness is the 2nd choice and seems recently to have been racing well behind better. Calvin Borel is in the driver's seat and maybe the combination of a lesser field and BoRail can push this won to the front at the wire.
#4 Rumor Has It is the 3rd choice on the basis of having won the race last year. That's not much to go on but its all I got in this contentious field. He has been running well lately and there aren't any "great" horses in this race. So, why not a repeat performance?
#12 Deal Making is a lightly raced 4 year old looking to make his first big score. 3 for 8 on the turf he comes 3rd off the layoff for Graham Motion.
Well that's all for Ky Downs. I'll post the Woodbine races a little later today or tomorrow morning. Until then.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Saturday Stakes
Welcome back for another trip through the Public Handicapper races of the day. First a look at last Sunday's Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.
Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.
But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.
The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.
#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.
#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.
4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.
That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.
Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.
Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.
Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.
#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1
Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.
Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.
The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.
The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.
#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1
The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.
As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.
#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).
I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.
The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.
#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1
The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.
The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.
I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.
If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.
Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.
Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.
#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1
As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.
Enjoy the days races and good luck.
Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.
Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.
But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.
The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.
#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.
#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.
4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.
That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.
Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.
Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.
Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.
#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1
Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.
Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.
The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.
The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.
#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1
The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.
As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.
#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).
I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.
The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.
#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1
The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.
The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.
I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.
If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.
Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.
Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.
#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1
As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.
Enjoy the days races and good luck.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Pacific Classic From Del Mar
First, to recap yesterday's races.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.
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