Some Days You Get The Bear and ....

Yesterday was one of the days the bear got me, it happens and I don't worry about it too much although I did nearly throw my binder when my playing in selection in the 8th race at Gulfstream Park reared at the start. It was one of those days.



I did get to meet Michael Nikolic, the writer of Gathering The Wind http://blackwatchholdings.blogspot.com/. Meeting Michael was very enjoyable and it is always nice to put a face on a name. Only hope I didn't ruin his day.



Meanwhile back to Saturday's results. If its any consolation, I didn't do any better in my other investments than I did with the stakes races.



The Mac Diamarda Stakes at Gulfstream was easily the most frustrating. Firstly because I was there. And mostly because I got to sit there and watch the odds sit right at my overlay points on Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Always First. At first, all three horses were overlays with both Quasicobra and Always First both at 8-1 or higher, which would have been a no play. Pressious Passion sat at 5-1 for most of the betting until, maybe 3 minutes before post. Finally, Pressious Passion dropped to 9-2 leaving me with Always First at 7-1 and Quasicobra at 10-1 making the bet to win on Always First with the exacta of Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Spice Route over Always First. A look at the results chart of the race shows me that Always First was only $0.10 away from being 8-1 and would have had a nice exacta. The cliche about football is that its a game of inches. Horse racing is more about inches in more ways than football can ever dream about.

Meanwhile, over at the Tampa Bay Stakes. Classic Campaign gave it a good go before being edged at the wire by a neck. Technically, there was no overlay in that race so no detriment to my little record on the left. Unfortunately for me, and this is why I do so much better with a simulcast monitor I can invest from, Classic Campaign dropped from a very nice over layed 8-1 to 7-2 between 5 MTP and Post, actual final odds were 3.9 to 1. Since the 28 to 1 long shot, Victory Alleged indeed, outfinished all my contenders, I came up empty there as well.

Meanwhile, as the bad streak continues, at Turfway in the Valdale Stakes. Spoilher was the play. Unfortunately, Spoilher did not finish. I didn't play that race because I was on my way to the Florida Panthers game by then. However, if I had played that race, Spoilher would have been the 3rd horse I played in 2 weeks that broke down. Bad luck for me and even worse for the poor horses. Trainers and owners should start paying me to not play their horses.

Later at Santa Anita, at least Bel Air Sizzle gave me a conteder with a picture in the winner's circle even if he did have to share the spotlight with One Bad Kitty. However, the play for me was Christiana's Heat at 4-1. Good thing I was at the hockey game by then. Still, it has to count against me as far as the little results thingy on the left goes.

That's racing! The great thing is there is always another race just around the corner. I have to go out now and buy a new mattress.

P H picks for Feb. 21

It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks

First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf

#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.

Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.

Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.


#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1

This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?

Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.


#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1

Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.

Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.


#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1

Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.

Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.

Equal Time

A post or two ago I posted a review of Joseph J. Tuttle's book,"The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer". I also posted the same review on Amazon.

Now I have no desire to get into an internet shouting match, but I would like for you to read the authors response to my review. I'll let you, dear reader, be the judge.

joseph tuttle says:

Sir,

Evidently, you don't very much care that you're my only 1-star review; you only feel this insatiable need to "be heard"!!! Even though the long-winded nature of your review absolutely screams "COMPETITOR", or at the very least a friend of one. This is still America, and you're entitled to your opinion. But, that good sir is pretty pathetic, in my humble opinion. Have you even tried to put my methodologies to work? There's a very old saying professor...."Don't knock it, until you try it!" I make quite the comfortable living wagering on horses and/or sports. And, I've done so for almost 17 years! Go to www.thetuttleway.com to see my immense 152IQ at work, or to see that my #1 strength is my accessibility.

Below, is my home phone number, I would be more than happy to help you understand any/all of my theorems.

One more thing..... YOUR READING COMPREHENSION SKILLS ARE QUITE LACKING!!!!! I said that 90% of horses "switch leads" instinctively, OUT OF NECESSITY! The ones that are able to do it "on command" are the classy ones. You literally reworded my text, and on the basis of that alone I could have your review removed, but I won't.....BECAUSE, I HAVE CLASS!!!!!

Phone no. removed to protect Mr. Tuttle's privacy....Feel free to call me, if you dare, since you're also in Florida!

p.s. My Father was a harness horseman (primarilly), and died at age 83 in June of 2005. He wasn't famous, at all, and I certainly would hope that you might not be able to find anything on him, at google.

Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Now, the interesting thing is, I have twice spoken by telephone with Mr. Tuttle and he has since sent me about 5 of his books by PDF file. Actually, Mr. Tuttle was quite genial over the phone and it was a pleasure discussing his books and ideas. I look forward to many more meetings of mind with Mr. Tuttle.

St. Valentine's Day Massacre

Well the sad news is Voorhee's Ballad, a 5 year old horse sired by Mecke out of Sweet Ballad by Saint Ballado, broke down in the first race yesterday and was euthanized on the track. Voorhee's Ballad had a lifetime record of 37 4-9-6 with $164,109. R.I.P.

In the 3rd race, the winner, Meli, did not get her picture taken as she was vanned off the track. I'm sorry to say Meli's condition is unknown to me at this time. Getting information on horse injuries is difficult to say the least.

Not a great day for the publichandicapper.com picks either. At least at Gulfstream I had the right horse on top, Duke Of Homberg; however, in the contest, I won't even get credit for that as I tried to get cute in the contest and get a better price with Adari. For investment purposes, the race was a pass.

In the remaining two races, I was completely off the board. I thought the invaders would fare much better at Tampa Bay Downs but was mistaken as all my contenders finished off the board. The correct wager, based on my contenders was Cliffy's Future who was never a factor in the race.

Meanwhile at Santa Anita, Mistical Plan was the play. Apparently, the folks at Santa Anita knew something I didn't as Mistical Plan was the longest price on the board and ran accordingly.

I'll try to do better next week.

Meanwhile, as I was entering my $0.50 Pick 4 wager at Gulfstream next to the $50.00 minimum bet window (catch the irony there?) a man comes up to the $50 min window and lays $1000.00 on the 2 at Aqueduct to win. Well your intrepid horseplayer figures this guy must be pretty confident to lay that much money on a horse to win. I looked up at the Aqueduct monitor and saw they were beginning to load. I went to an open wagering machine, and, miraculously, the machine accepted my voucher without a fuss. Then I had to find the Aqueduct track from among the other tracks button, and place my $5.00 investment. When I rechecked the monitor, I could see the race was already running. Hmmmm, what's up with that? At any rate, it turned out well for me. The "2" was the 2-1 2nd choice and, obviously, the inside speed on the Big A's inner track. The 2 wired the field, at least from the point where I joined the race, and paid $6.40.

So here's today's handicapping lesson. Hang out around the $50 minimum bet window and wait for the whales to come in and ride on their coattails.