Ah yes my friends. Today it is my pleasure to bring you a review of the book of one of our advertisers, Uberhorse.com. The book is written by Mark E. Ripple and the title is as shown in the header for this entry.
The general thesis of the book is that playing the horses is much the same as investing in the stock market. Particular with regards to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as an analogy to the wagering pool. The gist of EMH is that at any given moment the given price for a stock is at the proper level due to the vast amount of information known about the underlying asset the stock represents. The idea being that the ebb and flow between rational buyers and sellers establishes the true value for the stock.
The author makes the claim that betting pools behave similarly to the market in that there is a vast amount of information processed by rational players which is used to establish the proper odds for each contestant in the race. Therefore, at any given moment the odds for a given horse are a true reflection of that horses probability of winning the race. The author has dubbed this phenomenom the Efficient Pool Hypothesis (EPH).
Naturally, there are flaws in the EMH as well as the EPH and imbalances occur in both markets that the astute trader (player) should be able to take advantage of. Without going into all the reasons (greed and fear) that these imbalances occur, I am in general agreement with the author on this count.
Generally, in the markets and in the wagering pools, the crowd gets it right most of the time. In recent years in the stock market we've seen many manias and panics. These manias and panics are over-reactions of the crowd to certain pieces of information which is either favorable or unfavorable. The author gives several examples of how these imbalances may occur at the racetrack and suggests methods by which one may take advantage of these imbalances. The think I liked best about the suggestions are that they were simple, easy to follow, common sense ideas without a lot complicated or esoteric calculations that are impractical for most player and, in my opinion, of dubious value anyway.
The author talks a little about the psychology of betting. The subtitle of Chapter 2 is "The Zero Sum Game". I disagree with the author on this point. Because of the take-out, racing is actually a negative sum game. The track returns less to the bettors than they take in, its how they make their money. Here he makes some generalized observations about different types of players and the effects these different types may have on the betting pool. I really think this is probably one of the weaker sections of the book as the author makes several conjectures regarding player preferences which may or may not be so.
Most analogies are of limited value at some point, and here I think the author meets his Waterloo in comparing two and three year olds to penny stocks. I don't think anyone is thinking of Rachel Alexandra as a penny stock. Personally, I love betting 2 year old sprints because they are all about speed as two year olds just hit the track and go. They have yet to learn the finer points of racing and if you can find the one that will break well and carry his speed for 4 1/2 furlongs you've likely found the winner. But even noted author James Quinn warns against playing 3 year old maiden races saying they are too unpredictable, so I can't totally bust on the author for this part of the book. I'll just say that I didn't think this part of the book added much to the discussion and move on.
The author offers a little questionnaire to help the reader determine his risk profile. I think the questions are, for the most part good and perhaps useful to the novice just starting out. My personal question regarding this part of the book is how the author came up with these questions. If he developed them himself, then in what way is he qualified to come up with these questions? Perhaps he could answer that as a stock broker, part of his job was to assess the risk profile of potential clients. Or maybe, he collaborated with a qualified psychologist to arrive at these questions and the personality assessment based on the answers to the questions. Either answer, or perhaps another would satisfy me. It would just be nice to know. By the way, I fit the high risk profile.
After determining whether you are a high risk kind of guy or more conservative bettor, the author then offers potential strategies and angles one can use which fit the profile. Again, what I liked about these offerings for both the aggressive and conservative player is the simplicity of the methods and the clear straightforward manner in which the methodologies may be applied. I do have some basic disagreements some aspects of the approaches the author uses, especially those that would require me to carry a calculator to the track. But that is only to say that there is more than one way to skin a cat, not to disparage the methods the author proposes. There is my perpetual quibble that I would like to see some statistical documentation that these methods are actually profitable, but maybe that is asking too much.
The author offers a list of tracks that he suggests are good for either long shot or conservative players. I'm not sure about how accurate this chart is, particularly after the Uber chalky Saturday I spent at Calder on Saturday. And many of the races at Gulfstream with its emphasis on 3 year olds and horses coming of their late fall early winter layoffs can at times be quite inscrutable leading to frequent box car payoffs.
The author discusses money management. Good for him. More authors should discuss money management. Barry Meadows suggested using the Kelly Method to determine bet size and, for my money, this is the method that has always made the most sense except for the fatal flaw that it required me to use a calculator at the track. I found that I was spending most of my time figuring out bet sizes and not really enjoying myself. The author discusses progressive betting methods where the player bets more money on each successive race after a loss until the player finally wins. The problem is, if the player doesn't win soon enough, he goes bust. The author kind of hedges his position on progressive betting sort of saying he, "is not a big fan of progressive betting in general, but the Fibonacci sequence is certainly my favorite method....." I'm not quite sure if he's fer or agin it.
I did like his Dutching section and in fact I used that method in my Preakness bet. Unfortunately for me, for dutching to work, you still have to have the winner. I don't usually dutch, as a rule, but somtimes I find it a useful tool, particularly if I have two longshots in a race I feel good about. The section on dutching, if you are not familiar with the technique is very useful. Personally, I tend to be a flat bet wagerer although I will occasionally vary the size of my bet depending on odds, mood, or confidence in my handicapping of a particular race. The author states that flat betting does not take full advantage of the conservative betting methods he suggests, but then I am not a conservative better and will tend to put more money on longshots than my short priced overlays.
The last chapter, discussing finding value in exactas is very useful, particularly for new players. Unfortunately for me, I'd have to take a calculator with me again. For me, if at least one of my contenders is an overlay, then I'm good to go. I know that this is not always a reliable method for finding value in the exacta pool, but its close enough for me to work with. However, the author is technically correct and one should at least pay attention to the exacta payoffs to determine if the pay out is really worth the risk. I do wish that the author would've discussed value in more depth in other parts of the book.
In summary, while I do have some quibbles and disagreements with the author such as I have already discussed. I did find the book to be a worthwhile read. There is a saying, attributable to Benjamin Graham, I think,"Buy when there is blood in the streets." Or, to put it another way, when everyone is jumping on Smarty Jones or Big Brown in the Belmont, maybe its time to look for a little value elsewhere. I think the author gives a unique perspective and offers some good solid advice. If I ever find a book where I agree with everthing in it, I'm goin to go have my head examined. To me the great thing about racing is everyone is entitled to their opinions and beliefs and furthermore, they can put their money on it.
So in closing, buy the book. The price is reasonable and you definitely will learn something from it.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
Preakness Post Mortem
A day late and $23.00 short (the total amount I played on the Preakness) I'm trying to figure out what to do with that little thingy to the left on the top with my picture. At first, I was just using my raw Public Handicapper Picks up. However, since I don't necessarily play my top choice in a race, I decided that wasn't an accurate representation of my results.
Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.
So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.
So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.
My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.
After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).
Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.
However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.
If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.
In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.
The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.
The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.
Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.
So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.
So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.
My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.
After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).
Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.
However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.
If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.
In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.
The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.
The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Pub Handicapper Picks for May 16
Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Black-Eyed Susan and Later Preakness Thoughts
The Black-Eyed Susan for 3yo Fillies. Well I just saw that Hooh Why my top choice is scratched. Matt Carruthers on TVG said we knew about this days ago, but I didn't. Well that sort of changes everything. #8 Don't Forget Gil was my 2nd choice, but Hooh Why was a major pace factor and I envisioned a scenario where Hooh Why and Casanova Move would hook up early and set the race up for Don't Forget Gil.
That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.
Here are the odds:
#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.
For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.
That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.
Here are the odds:
#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.
For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.
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