TVG reports a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas.
In the PH 8th race at Belmont Scolara was a winner for me at 5/2. However, the race was a pass with no overlays. Unfortunate since the exacta was in play as well.
In the PH/HANA Aristides G3 at Churchill Semaphore Man did not disappoint going off at a surprising, to me, 5-1 just got beat by Bold Start. Fortunately for me, Bold Start was my substitute runner for the scratched Cassoulet, and I get the exacta as a consolation prize.
The next 2 races are at Golden Gate Fields at 7:27 and Hollywood at 8:08. Stay tuned and see how the Weasel does.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Phandcapper and HANA Pool Races: May 30
Another Saturday and another installment on Public Handicapper and the HANA Pool race of the week.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Post Race Analysis for May 23
Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
PH and HANA Pool Picks: May 23
It's Saturday and that means time for another week of Stakes Race and Pool picks from the Chalk Eating Weasel.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
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