Saturday, May 8, 2010

All's Quiet

It's that quiet time between the Derby and the Preakness. Many of the trainers and owners playing it cagey in trying to decide whether to run in the Preakness or skip the middle and load up for the Belmont.

As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.

You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.

A few selections for today.

In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.

In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.

Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.

Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.

That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.

I'm off

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Derby Day 2010.."Who'll Stop The Rain"

Just a quicky for Derby Day today. Got to look at the form for Calder as the wife ambushed me with the assumption that we were going to Calder for today's festivities. I wanted to watch the racing from the comfort of my living room.



First up is the G1 Humana Distaff. What better race to look for mudders than in a race for 4 and up fillies and mares.



Top pick is #3 Informed Decision winner of last years Humana on a sloppy Derby day. Last year Informed Decision also broke from post 3, was 2nd off a layoff, had J. Leparoux aboard, and came out of the G1 Madison at Keeneland. Holy deja vu, Batman! History repeats itself today.

#6 has been "Pretty Prolific" on an off track and has been swapping strides with the number 3 contender, Warbling, for the last three races winning once and finishing behind her the other two times. The win came on a sloppy track; therefore advantage Pretty Prolific.

#2 Warbling is fairly accomplished for a mere 5 race career including a win over next out winner Tar Heel Mom in the G2 Inside Information stakes at Gulfstream Park last out. Look's like she can handle an off track OK and should have a strong chance here.

If you're looking for a live longshot look no further than the #9 Rated Fiesty running for Steve Asmussen. 1 for 1 in slop and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. She's not as accomplished as the other 3, but she does have ability and the stars may be aligned for her today.

The G2 Churchill Downs is full of familiar names the classiest of which may be #7 Warrior's Reward. Once again J. Leparoux has the reins. Warrior has found rewards on off going and is 3 for 4 at the distance. A true specialist at this distance.

#12 Musket Man ran well in the Derby last year finishing 3rd and has been triple digit Brisnet consistent losing by only a nose to the top choice last out. If the top choice falters in any way, Musket Man should be right there

3rd choice is #8 Ventana a G2 winner last out. Raced well in one try over off going and ships in for Bob Baffert who is an astonishing 24% in Graded races with a positive ROI meaning all these runners are not going off at short prices. Jockey of the year runner up Garret Gomez is in the irons and West Coast runner have been doing well when coming east.

Long shot choice for this race is #13 Accredit. 5 for 5 on off tracks he is a true mudder who might take it all if he is on his fodder. Sorry I just couldn't help myself. Accredit won this race last year at 4 to 1 and considering the competition I expect he'll be a longer price this year.

Now for the Derby. Truth is, I don't have a clue. But I have opinions. I've been Lookin at Lucky since the Rebel and can't stop now even with the #1 post position draw. #1 Lookin at Lucky is the top choice.

The next choice in order are #6 Stately Victor, #10 Paddy O Prado with excellent off track breeding and #11 Devil May Care who has been working well on the sloppy Churchill track.

Good luck and I'm Off