It's Quality Road!

Quality Road managed to hold off Dunkirk in the strectch as well as an objection from Kent Desormeaux, the rider of Theregoesjojo, and Garrett Gomez on Dunkirk proving to be the best while setting a course record in the Florida Derby.

Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.

After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."

Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.

The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.

Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.

However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.

I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.

Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.

Until next time, May The Horse be With You

Florida Derby Eve

Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.

Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.

Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.

In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.

In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.

As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...

Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html

May the Horse be with you.

Florida Derby Week

The Florida Derby is Saturday and the weather is expected to windy but dry and maybe a little on the warm side. I suppose it will be no surprise to reveal that most of the attention in the 9 horse field will be on Quality Road, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk. Pletcher has also entered as an uncoupled entry the winless in one attempt Europe. Doubtless Europe is there to be offered as the sacrificial horse to ensure the late running Dunkirk has an honest pace to run at.

In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.

Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.

I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.

Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.

That's all for now

Hialeah to Reopen?

Bloodhorse.com reports that the old Hialeah Park, in beautiful downtown Hialeah, has been granted a quarter horse license and may begin racing quarter horses beginning March 17, 2010. In addition, there is legislation pending in Tallahassee that would allow the track to run thoroughbreds for up to 50% of the meet. Don't get your hopes up there.

The article goes on to report that the track, which has been closed since 2001, is in bad condition with grass growing on the track, and would require, by estimate of the current owner $30 million to renovate for racing.

There are apparently plans to include a simulcast room and card room.

I don't know if the area can support a third track with two that seem to be just hanging on now. Especially with all the other gaming on and off-shore opportunities available. But I'd sure like to see someone give it a go.

Click here for the full story http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49738/hialeah-okd-for-quarter-horse-racing

Fair Grounds Stakes

This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.

The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.

Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.

Here are the picks.


#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1

#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.

The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.


#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1

In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds

Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.

Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)


#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1

#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.

Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds


#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1


#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm

That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.

Handicapping Questions

Here's a poser for you. The first race Saturday at Gulfstream Park will pit 3 year old Maidens against their old brethren. Therefore the question, can 3 year olds compete with 4 year olds this time of year? Now, in case you're wondering, the older horses are spotting their juniors 8 pounds. But what to look for? Well this is going to be a time when saving all those results charts is going to help.

The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.

The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.

I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.

There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.

On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.

A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.

Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.

I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.

I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.

Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.

So Now What?

OK. So Magna Entertainment Corp. finally filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. We all knew it would happen, and I'm sure not breaking any news. So now what? What are the intentions of MI Developments, the apparent beneficiary of Magna's embarassment. MI played hardball with Magna with regards to extending due dates on loan payments. I don't know about you, but MI Developments doesn't sound like the type of company interested in running thoroughbred racing establishments. Can you say, year round racing at Calder Race Course?

No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!

One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.

I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?

There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.

I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.

However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?

And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!

Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.