Fair Grounds Stakes

This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.

The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.

Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.

Here are the picks.


#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1

#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.

The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.


#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1

In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds

Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.

Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)


#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1

#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.

Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds


#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1


#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm

That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.