The Florida Derby is Saturday and the weather is expected to windy but dry and maybe a little on the warm side. I suppose it will be no surprise to reveal that most of the attention in the 9 horse field will be on Quality Road, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk. Pletcher has also entered as an uncoupled entry the winless in one attempt Europe. Doubtless Europe is there to be offered as the sacrificial horse to ensure the late running Dunkirk has an honest pace to run at.
In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.
Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.
I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.
Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.
That's all for now
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
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2 comments:
J.C.
Looks like EUROPE will be a $2.6 million rabbit for $3.7 million DUNKIRK!!!
Trouble is, they'll ruin EUROPE for months if not his entire career 'cuz ain't no way QUALITY ROAD gets beaten unless he's pressed into fractions around :45 flat, 1:09 flat. His 6f split in the FOY is faster than any of his competition have ever run and he'll project to a 6f time in the 1:10.60 range and have plenty left to open up down the lane. Closest is THEREGOESJOJO and his raw time was nearly three lengths slower on a track that may have been faster than FOY day.
We'll see. I'm having sooo much trouble separating the big three.
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