The most important day of racing in North America, Breeder's Cup included, is preceded by the KY Derby equivalent for 3 year old fillies, the Kentucky Oaks to be run tomorrow at 5:45. Unlike the first Saturday in May this year, the forecast for the last Friday in April for Louisville is sunny skies
Last year's edition featured a short field that was completely outclassed by Rachel Alexander. This years offering should be an interesting race with a full field of betting opportunities.
There is a class horse in the race by the name of Blind Luck a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and third place finisher in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Blind Luck is your likely favorite and deserves to be, but she isn't a slam dunk.
Amen Hallelujah is consistent as all get out having finished in the money in 5 consecutive graded events. She has excellent tactical speed and will likely be forwardly placed, but she is not a need to lead type so look for someone else to set the early fractions. Her speed numbers in her last three G2 outing in which she won 2 of 3 put her right in the thick of things. She may be the one to catch when they turn for the stretch. Oh, and did I mention Julien Leparoux?
Evening Jewel won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland last out and came within a nose of the favorite 2 races back. This makes Evening Jewel an automatic contender to upset Blind Luck. Evening Jewel wired the Ashland but don't expect a repeat of that tactic in this race.
The third choice to upset Blind Luck is Beautician. Why not? A cursory look at her form shows what appears to be a spotty performer. On one day and way off the next. But take a closer look.
Beautician broke her maiden in her first race on this very track. Went directly to Saratoga with 2 strong efforts in the G3 Schuylerville and G1 Spinaway Stakes. Moved on to Keeneland in the fall on their all-weather surface turning in a so-so effort. Bested Blind Luck in the BC Juvenile with a 2nd place finish. Real bad at Hollywood, different surface. Real good at Oaklawn, back on dirt and so-so again at Keeneland. Now she is back on the surface she is proven on. Look for a strong effort. I'd go so far as to make her my upset pick for the race.
Quiet Temper and Crisp also deserve mention as possibilities, but you can't play the entire field.
Gun to my head, Blind Luck. However I'll be taking a good hard look to upset Blind Luck in this race and think I have provided three solid prospects to pull that off. Whatever you do, best of luck.
I'll be back with the Derby and other races from Saturday's Churchill card.
Get free PP's for most major stakes racing from the TBA http://www.tbablogs.com/.
I'm off
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Skip the Derby--Aim for the Preakness
That's my advice to the connections of the hardest working 3 yo colt in racing, Jackson Bend. Not that they need my advice. Nick Zito has more experience in his little toe than I have in my super-sized body when it comes to placing horses in classic races.
However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.
I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?
Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.
Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up
This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.
No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.
Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.
In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.
7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1
The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds
This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.
My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.
Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).
The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.
Summary and needed odds
1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1
Hey be sure to check out the other bloggers of the TBA. We've made it easy for you with the links on the side of the page.
And while you're there, visit the TBA facebook page as well.
However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.
I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?
Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.
Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up
This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.
No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.
Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.
In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.
7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1
The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds
This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.
My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.
Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).
The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.
Summary and needed odds
1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1
Hey be sure to check out the other bloggers of the TBA. We've made it easy for you with the links on the side of the page.
And while you're there, visit the TBA facebook page as well.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Last Chance For Some Derby Hopefuls
Going into the what is realistically the last chance for some Derby hopefuls to gain the coveted graded stakes earnings they need to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. For today, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn will be the big draws.
First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.
The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.
This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.
The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.
To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.
Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.
For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.
In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them
#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1
The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.
Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.
This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.
Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.
Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.
The contenders and required odds to play are as follows
#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1
For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.
I'm Off!
First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.
The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.
This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.
The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.
To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.
Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.
For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.
In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them
#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1
The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.
Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.
This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.
Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.
Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.
The contenders and required odds to play are as follows
#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1
For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.
I'm Off!
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Easter Sunday at Gulfstream Park
Have you ever noticed when watching a college football game, or even a high school game for that matter, the game can be totally entertaining even with the full realization that you are not watching the best athletes compete? That was feeling today at Gulfstream Park where there was not a single stakes race and the highest level race was an Allowance for non-winners of 3.
Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.
Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.
As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.
Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.
Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.
Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.
That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.
I'm Off
Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.
Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.
As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.
Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.
Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.
Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.
That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.
I'm Off
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