It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Equal Time
A post or two ago I posted a review of Joseph J. Tuttle's book,"The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer". I also posted the same review on Amazon.
Now I have no desire to get into an internet shouting match, but I would like for you to read the authors response to my review. I'll let you, dear reader, be the judge.
joseph tuttle says:
Sir,
Evidently, you don't very much care that you're my only 1-star review; you only feel this insatiable need to "be heard"!!! Even though the long-winded nature of your review absolutely screams "COMPETITOR", or at the very least a friend of one. This is still America, and you're entitled to your opinion. But, that good sir is pretty pathetic, in my humble opinion. Have you even tried to put my methodologies to work? There's a very old saying professor...."Don't knock it, until you try it!" I make quite the comfortable living wagering on horses and/or sports. And, I've done so for almost 17 years! Go to www.thetuttleway.com to see my immense 152IQ at work, or to see that my #1 strength is my accessibility.
Below, is my home phone number, I would be more than happy to help you understand any/all of my theorems.
One more thing..... YOUR READING COMPREHENSION SKILLS ARE QUITE LACKING!!!!! I said that 90% of horses "switch leads" instinctively, OUT OF NECESSITY! The ones that are able to do it "on command" are the classy ones. You literally reworded my text, and on the basis of that alone I could have your review removed, but I won't.....BECAUSE, I HAVE CLASS!!!!!
Phone no. removed to protect Mr. Tuttle's privacy....Feel free to call me, if you dare, since you're also in Florida!
p.s. My Father was a harness horseman (primarilly), and died at age 83 in June of 2005. He wasn't famous, at all, and I certainly would hope that you might not be able to find anything on him, at google.
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle
Now, the interesting thing is, I have twice spoken by telephone with Mr. Tuttle and he has since sent me about 5 of his books by PDF file. Actually, Mr. Tuttle was quite genial over the phone and it was a pleasure discussing his books and ideas. I look forward to many more meetings of mind with Mr. Tuttle.
Now I have no desire to get into an internet shouting match, but I would like for you to read the authors response to my review. I'll let you, dear reader, be the judge.
joseph tuttle says:
Sir,
Evidently, you don't very much care that you're my only 1-star review; you only feel this insatiable need to "be heard"!!! Even though the long-winded nature of your review absolutely screams "COMPETITOR", or at the very least a friend of one. This is still America, and you're entitled to your opinion. But, that good sir is pretty pathetic, in my humble opinion. Have you even tried to put my methodologies to work? There's a very old saying professor...."Don't knock it, until you try it!" I make quite the comfortable living wagering on horses and/or sports. And, I've done so for almost 17 years! Go to www.thetuttleway.com to see my immense 152IQ at work, or to see that my #1 strength is my accessibility.
Below, is my home phone number, I would be more than happy to help you understand any/all of my theorems.
One more thing..... YOUR READING COMPREHENSION SKILLS ARE QUITE LACKING!!!!! I said that 90% of horses "switch leads" instinctively, OUT OF NECESSITY! The ones that are able to do it "on command" are the classy ones. You literally reworded my text, and on the basis of that alone I could have your review removed, but I won't.....BECAUSE, I HAVE CLASS!!!!!
Phone no. removed to protect Mr. Tuttle's privacy....Feel free to call me, if you dare, since you're also in Florida!
p.s. My Father was a harness horseman (primarilly), and died at age 83 in June of 2005. He wasn't famous, at all, and I certainly would hope that you might not be able to find anything on him, at google.
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle
Now, the interesting thing is, I have twice spoken by telephone with Mr. Tuttle and he has since sent me about 5 of his books by PDF file. Actually, Mr. Tuttle was quite genial over the phone and it was a pleasure discussing his books and ideas. I look forward to many more meetings of mind with Mr. Tuttle.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
St. Valentine's Day Massacre
Well the sad news is Voorhee's Ballad, a 5 year old horse sired by Mecke out of Sweet Ballad by Saint Ballado, broke down in the first race yesterday and was euthanized on the track. Voorhee's Ballad had a lifetime record of 37 4-9-6 with $164,109. R.I.P.
In the 3rd race, the winner, Meli, did not get her picture taken as she was vanned off the track. I'm sorry to say Meli's condition is unknown to me at this time. Getting information on horse injuries is difficult to say the least.
Not a great day for the publichandicapper.com picks either. At least at Gulfstream I had the right horse on top, Duke Of Homberg; however, in the contest, I won't even get credit for that as I tried to get cute in the contest and get a better price with Adari. For investment purposes, the race was a pass.
In the remaining two races, I was completely off the board. I thought the invaders would fare much better at Tampa Bay Downs but was mistaken as all my contenders finished off the board. The correct wager, based on my contenders was Cliffy's Future who was never a factor in the race.
Meanwhile at Santa Anita, Mistical Plan was the play. Apparently, the folks at Santa Anita knew something I didn't as Mistical Plan was the longest price on the board and ran accordingly.
I'll try to do better next week.
Meanwhile, as I was entering my $0.50 Pick 4 wager at Gulfstream next to the $50.00 minimum bet window (catch the irony there?) a man comes up to the $50 min window and lays $1000.00 on the 2 at Aqueduct to win. Well your intrepid horseplayer figures this guy must be pretty confident to lay that much money on a horse to win. I looked up at the Aqueduct monitor and saw they were beginning to load. I went to an open wagering machine, and, miraculously, the machine accepted my voucher without a fuss. Then I had to find the Aqueduct track from among the other tracks button, and place my $5.00 investment. When I rechecked the monitor, I could see the race was already running. Hmmmm, what's up with that? At any rate, it turned out well for me. The "2" was the 2-1 2nd choice and, obviously, the inside speed on the Big A's inner track. The 2 wired the field, at least from the point where I joined the race, and paid $6.40.
So here's today's handicapping lesson. Hang out around the $50 minimum bet window and wait for the whales to come in and ride on their coattails.
In the 3rd race, the winner, Meli, did not get her picture taken as she was vanned off the track. I'm sorry to say Meli's condition is unknown to me at this time. Getting information on horse injuries is difficult to say the least.
Not a great day for the publichandicapper.com picks either. At least at Gulfstream I had the right horse on top, Duke Of Homberg; however, in the contest, I won't even get credit for that as I tried to get cute in the contest and get a better price with Adari. For investment purposes, the race was a pass.
In the remaining two races, I was completely off the board. I thought the invaders would fare much better at Tampa Bay Downs but was mistaken as all my contenders finished off the board. The correct wager, based on my contenders was Cliffy's Future who was never a factor in the race.
Meanwhile at Santa Anita, Mistical Plan was the play. Apparently, the folks at Santa Anita knew something I didn't as Mistical Plan was the longest price on the board and ran accordingly.
I'll try to do better next week.
Meanwhile, as I was entering my $0.50 Pick 4 wager at Gulfstream next to the $50.00 minimum bet window (catch the irony there?) a man comes up to the $50 min window and lays $1000.00 on the 2 at Aqueduct to win. Well your intrepid horseplayer figures this guy must be pretty confident to lay that much money on a horse to win. I looked up at the Aqueduct monitor and saw they were beginning to load. I went to an open wagering machine, and, miraculously, the machine accepted my voucher without a fuss. Then I had to find the Aqueduct track from among the other tracks button, and place my $5.00 investment. When I rechecked the monitor, I could see the race was already running. Hmmmm, what's up with that? At any rate, it turned out well for me. The "2" was the 2-1 2nd choice and, obviously, the inside speed on the Big A's inner track. The 2 wired the field, at least from the point where I joined the race, and paid $6.40.
So here's today's handicapping lesson. Hang out around the $50 minimum bet window and wait for the whales to come in and ride on their coattails.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Publichandicapper.com Contest Picks for Feb. 14: St. Valentine's Day Massacre?
Ok, today I begin my first day of accountability for my contest picks as I will begin filling in that little box on the left hand side.
First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.
My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.
I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.
If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.
If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.
If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.
If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.
If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"
I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.
Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.
Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.
Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp
#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3
#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1
#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.
Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1
#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.
Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap
I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.
That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there
First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.
My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.
I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.
If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.
If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.
If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.
If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.
If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"
I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.
Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.
Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.
Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp
#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3
#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1
#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.
Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1
#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.
Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap
I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.
That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there
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