Bloodhorse.com reports that the old Hialeah Park, in beautiful downtown Hialeah, has been granted a quarter horse license and may begin racing quarter horses beginning March 17, 2010. In addition, there is legislation pending in Tallahassee that would allow the track to run thoroughbreds for up to 50% of the meet. Don't get your hopes up there.
The article goes on to report that the track, which has been closed since 2001, is in bad condition with grass growing on the track, and would require, by estimate of the current owner $30 million to renovate for racing.
There are apparently plans to include a simulcast room and card room.
I don't know if the area can support a third track with two that seem to be just hanging on now. Especially with all the other gaming on and off-shore opportunities available. But I'd sure like to see someone give it a go.
Click here for the full story http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49738/hialeah-okd-for-quarter-horse-racing
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Fair Grounds Stakes
This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Handicapping Questions
Here's a poser for you. The first race Saturday at Gulfstream Park will pit 3 year old Maidens against their old brethren. Therefore the question, can 3 year olds compete with 4 year olds this time of year? Now, in case you're wondering, the older horses are spotting their juniors 8 pounds. But what to look for? Well this is going to be a time when saving all those results charts is going to help.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
Friday, March 6, 2009
So Now What?
OK. So Magna Entertainment Corp. finally filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. We all knew it would happen, and I'm sure not breaking any news. So now what? What are the intentions of MI Developments, the apparent beneficiary of Magna's embarassment. MI played hardball with Magna with regards to extending due dates on loan payments. I don't know about you, but MI Developments doesn't sound like the type of company interested in running thoroughbred racing establishments. Can you say, year round racing at Calder Race Course?
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
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