As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Breeder's Cup Scramble
Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Sunday, September 20, 2009
North of the Border
Not much to write home about regarding yesterday's prognostications from KY Downs. But then, you can't say I didn't warn you. Those races didn't cost me any money. Hope you did better.
Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.
In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.
The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.
The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.
The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.
Race 10 The Woodbine Mile
This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.
#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.
The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.
The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.
The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.
That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.
Good Luck
Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.
In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.
The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.
The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.
The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.
Race 10 The Woodbine Mile
This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.
#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.
The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.
The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.
The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.
That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.
Good Luck
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Turfing It At KY Downs
Coming to you in two installments this week as the Public Handicapper weekend stakes will involve two race from Woodbine to be run tomorrow.
I'm kind of taking the weekend off this week but must play the Handicapper races. Actually I don't "have" to play them. Just feeling obligated to make selections for as many of the PH races as I can.
Two wrap up last week's action, three out of four ain't too bad. Might've been 4 of 4 if Gozzip Girl could've kept from stumbling over her own feet. However, that, my friends is why you don't play 2 to 5 favorites. Just sit and watch those races.
Unfortunately, the other 3 races turned out to be real chalk fests. I'd rather be 1 for 4 with an 18-1 Bullsbay than 3 for 4 with last weeks results.
Today's races come to us courtesy of Kentucky Downs, a quaint little turf course I really don't know all that much about, so keep that in mind and cut me some slack this week.
The first race is a 6 furlong affair known as the Kentucky Cup Turf Dash for 3 year olds and up. Looking at the course configuration, I would think the outside posts would be at a disadvantage here, but then last year Fort Prado managed to finish 2nd starting from the 9th post. You have to ask yourself did the outside post hinder Fort Prado from winning, enable him to overachieve, or have no real influence on the outcome one way or the other. I don't know the answer to that question.
The top choice for this race is #4 Guam Typhoon. This is strictly an angle play as Guam Typhoon is turning back from 9 furlongs to six after setting the fractions at the longer distance last 2 out at Saratoga. The caveat here is that Guam Typhoon has never raced on grass so some faith that trainer Ian Wilkes knows what he's doing here. Don't be looking for Guam Typhoon to be setting the fractions here. That is not how he has won sprints in the past. I suspect Borel will take him back off the pace and go for a big finish. But then again, I'm not very good at predicting race strategy.
I like the #9 Yankee Injunuity. Toss out his last over a yielding surface. If the footing is firm I don't see how he can miss being a factor in today's race. Be aware that the forecast for Franklin, Ky is for showers. Something to take into consideration as Yankee Injunuity sometimes seems to falter on soft courses.
The third pick is #6 Hold The Salt ridden my the 2nd all time leading wins female jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Hold The Salt is 2 for 2 at the distance and is 2 for 2 at Kentucky Downs including winning last years edition of this very race.
Finally I'll give #7 Just For Keeps a shot here. Michael Maker teams up with Orlando Mojica at a 41% win rate with a positive ROI. Just For Keeps comes off the bench not having a race since April, but Maker excels as a trainer in this category as well. Just For Keeps was very competitive early this year winning his first two starts before fading badly in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland. If he can regain his early form, he may be the price horse of the day.
The other race for today is the 1 1/2 mile Kentucky Cup Turf-G3 for 3 and up
I found this race to be a real head scratcher so take that under advisement before using anything I say here.
#2 Timeless Fashion is 9 for 5 lifetime and has never finished out of the money. This will be the strongest field this lightly raced 5 year old has faced and wouldn't be surprising at all to me if he goes all the way here
#5 My Happiness is the 2nd choice and seems recently to have been racing well behind better. Calvin Borel is in the driver's seat and maybe the combination of a lesser field and BoRail can push this won to the front at the wire.
#4 Rumor Has It is the 3rd choice on the basis of having won the race last year. That's not much to go on but its all I got in this contentious field. He has been running well lately and there aren't any "great" horses in this race. So, why not a repeat performance?
#12 Deal Making is a lightly raced 4 year old looking to make his first big score. 3 for 8 on the turf he comes 3rd off the layoff for Graham Motion.
Well that's all for Ky Downs. I'll post the Woodbine races a little later today or tomorrow morning. Until then.
I'm kind of taking the weekend off this week but must play the Handicapper races. Actually I don't "have" to play them. Just feeling obligated to make selections for as many of the PH races as I can.
Two wrap up last week's action, three out of four ain't too bad. Might've been 4 of 4 if Gozzip Girl could've kept from stumbling over her own feet. However, that, my friends is why you don't play 2 to 5 favorites. Just sit and watch those races.
Unfortunately, the other 3 races turned out to be real chalk fests. I'd rather be 1 for 4 with an 18-1 Bullsbay than 3 for 4 with last weeks results.
Today's races come to us courtesy of Kentucky Downs, a quaint little turf course I really don't know all that much about, so keep that in mind and cut me some slack this week.
The first race is a 6 furlong affair known as the Kentucky Cup Turf Dash for 3 year olds and up. Looking at the course configuration, I would think the outside posts would be at a disadvantage here, but then last year Fort Prado managed to finish 2nd starting from the 9th post. You have to ask yourself did the outside post hinder Fort Prado from winning, enable him to overachieve, or have no real influence on the outcome one way or the other. I don't know the answer to that question.
The top choice for this race is #4 Guam Typhoon. This is strictly an angle play as Guam Typhoon is turning back from 9 furlongs to six after setting the fractions at the longer distance last 2 out at Saratoga. The caveat here is that Guam Typhoon has never raced on grass so some faith that trainer Ian Wilkes knows what he's doing here. Don't be looking for Guam Typhoon to be setting the fractions here. That is not how he has won sprints in the past. I suspect Borel will take him back off the pace and go for a big finish. But then again, I'm not very good at predicting race strategy.
I like the #9 Yankee Injunuity. Toss out his last over a yielding surface. If the footing is firm I don't see how he can miss being a factor in today's race. Be aware that the forecast for Franklin, Ky is for showers. Something to take into consideration as Yankee Injunuity sometimes seems to falter on soft courses.
The third pick is #6 Hold The Salt ridden my the 2nd all time leading wins female jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Hold The Salt is 2 for 2 at the distance and is 2 for 2 at Kentucky Downs including winning last years edition of this very race.
Finally I'll give #7 Just For Keeps a shot here. Michael Maker teams up with Orlando Mojica at a 41% win rate with a positive ROI. Just For Keeps comes off the bench not having a race since April, but Maker excels as a trainer in this category as well. Just For Keeps was very competitive early this year winning his first two starts before fading badly in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland. If he can regain his early form, he may be the price horse of the day.
The other race for today is the 1 1/2 mile Kentucky Cup Turf-G3 for 3 and up
I found this race to be a real head scratcher so take that under advisement before using anything I say here.
#2 Timeless Fashion is 9 for 5 lifetime and has never finished out of the money. This will be the strongest field this lightly raced 5 year old has faced and wouldn't be surprising at all to me if he goes all the way here
#5 My Happiness is the 2nd choice and seems recently to have been racing well behind better. Calvin Borel is in the driver's seat and maybe the combination of a lesser field and BoRail can push this won to the front at the wire.
#4 Rumor Has It is the 3rd choice on the basis of having won the race last year. That's not much to go on but its all I got in this contentious field. He has been running well lately and there aren't any "great" horses in this race. So, why not a repeat performance?
#12 Deal Making is a lightly raced 4 year old looking to make his first big score. 3 for 8 on the turf he comes 3rd off the layoff for Graham Motion.
Well that's all for Ky Downs. I'll post the Woodbine races a little later today or tomorrow morning. Until then.
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