Wha' Happened?

As I'm sure you know by now, the trainer pattern I was so excited about did not pan out on Saturday. I received a private e-mail regarding the post gist of which was to tell me there may be a flaw in my reasoning. I asked the mailer for permission to publish the e-mail without revealing the writer's name and my response, but so far I have had no answer to my request. Now not that I am so impatient that I can't wait for permission, but since the race was already two days ago I thought I better go with it without permission before the topic loses it's currency.

First for the race itself. Silver Tree settled into a stalking position behind the long shot pacesetter and so the race went until they hit the stretch when Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer kicked into gear and gave a great duel down the stretch with Spice Route prevailing by a head bob. Silver Tree faded to 6th.

The gist of the writer's letter was to make me aware that Edgar Prado was riding in Japan this past weekend and was not available for the mount at Calder. It is true that I was not aware of Edgar's whereabout's, so perhaps there is a point that the naming of Desormeaux was not part of some master-plan on Bill Mott's part but simply an act of necessity and coincidence as Prado was not going to be available for the mount. Point well taken.

What still remained however was the pattern of running Silver Tree in a non-graded stakes conditioner prior to winning a graded stakes race. All things considered, I still don't think it was a bad play though I did like Spice Route's chances a lot and am quite familiar with Soldier's Dancer's attributes as well.

Now, without further adieu, my response.

First thanks for reading my posts and sending me a note. I love to know that others are actually reading what I put up. I wasn't aware that Edgar was in Japan, but it wouldn't have mattered to my analysis as I was just trying to point out a pattern that I observed that might be meaningful that others may not have observed.

In this case Silver Tree went off at 5 to 1 which was probably about right considering the competition. Silver Tree tracked the pacesetter and was in contention most of the race, except for the part that mattered most and finished 6th. Spice Route, another horse I really liked and probably would have played if not for the pattern observation with Silver Tree, barely nosed out the favorite Soldier's Dancer.

However, this is what I love most about racing. Everything is out there in front of you to be seen and, in reality, there are very few secrets. In my younger days I was an expert chess player and spent much of my time playing tournaments, and I see a lot of analogies to racing as every race or series of races can be considered tournaments in which you can enter or not enter as you see fit. It is a chance to match wits, skill, and even luck against thousands of others.

In many ways racing may even be more analogous to backgammon, another game I used to play pretty well. In backgammon, over a long series of games the better player will prevail; however, in any given game the worst player in the world may beat the world's best.

Long story short. I played Silver Tree to win and underneath Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer in the exacta and it didn't work out for me today. It is possible I overestimated the strength of the pattern, another thing I love is the post-mortem analysis. But I don't consider the play a mistake so much as a learning experience. A mistake is playing a short-priced underlay like I did in another race, one I don't make very often, just because I was convinced it couldn't lose, it could.

Regarding Edgar Prado. Edgar Prado is certainly a great rider and I'll be seeing a lot of him at Gulfstream in a few weeks. He's one of those riders you're always to happy to have on your choice and fear if he's on another.

Regards
Jeff