Sunday, September 6, 2009

Pacific Classic From Del Mar

First, to recap yesterday's races.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.

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