P H picks for Feb. 21

It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks

First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf

#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.

Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.

Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.


#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1

This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?

Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.


#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1

Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.

Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.


#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1

Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.

Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.