I spent my whole lunch hour today looking at the Preakness Stakes past performances and thinking about how to approach the race. As much as I looked forward to the Derby this is a far more interesting race to me.
The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.
I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.
Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?
Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.
However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.
Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.
Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.
Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.
Next time I'll tell who I like and why.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Saturday, May 9, 2009
New Contest
Well, it's a new Public Handicappers contest and I have recovered from the shock of the stunning derby upset and am ready to offer up some new wisdom for this week's Public Handicapper races. I will also give you my thoughts on the HANA Get In The Pool race (Race 6 @ Prarie Meadows) if I get a chance later.
You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races
Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.
#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.
Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
?
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""NHMJuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu=\
The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.
#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1
Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.
Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's
#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1
#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out
And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up
#4 Unwritten
#1 He's So Chic
#5 Acting Zippy
Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.
I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.
And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.
You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races
Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.
#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.
Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
?
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""NHMJuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu=\
The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.
#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1
Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.
Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's
#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1
#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out
And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up
#4 Unwritten
#1 He's So Chic
#5 Acting Zippy
Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.
I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.
And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Somebody Pinch Me
Somebody wake me up. I think I just had a bad dream. A 50-1 shot just closed me out of all of my Derby bets! What? It wasn't a Dream!? Arrrrrgh!
Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.
It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week
Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.
It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week
Rachel Romps, Weasel Chomps
Even at 1.5 to 5 the Weasel couldn't resist the allure of that equine siren, Rachel Alexandra. My $20.00 wager netted $6.00. I couldn't help myself. It's like going to the laudromat and finding $6.00 wadded up in the drier. How can you just leave it there?
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
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