Today's the day Calder Casino and Race Course honors the Florida Thoroughbred Industry with a Saturday card featuring 8 stakes races for Florida bred horses with a total purse of $1,000,000.
Trainer Marty Wolfson must be expecting a big day as he has brought in Julien Leparoux to ride all of his entries including It's a Bird in the feature race.
The weather is perfectly sunny without a cloud in the sky meaning the races meant to be run on turf will be run on turf.
Selections and odds for today's card follow
Race 1: 1 mile 70 yards Md12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#1 Nistelrooy of Joy 6/5--9-5
#10 Sea Hag 7/2--5/1
#7 Cruise Connection 6/1--9/1
Race 2: 5 furlongs (turf) Opt. Clm 16k/N1X for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#7 Runaway Heart 8/5--5/2
#4 Determined Gal 3/1--9/2
#9 French Dip 9/2--7/1
Race 3: 6 furlongs Clm 6250 for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#6 Unexpected Blessing 2/1--3/1
#4 Blushing Tiger 3/1--9/2
#5 Joan's Royal Dawn 7/2--5/1
Race 4: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#10 D'lucci Girl 2/1--3/1
#2 Winsocki 5/2--4/1
#8 Suzanne 4/1--6/1
Race 5: 7 furlongs, The Jack Prince Juvenile 150k 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#4 Mr. Green 5/2--4/1
#7 Good To Be Seen 3/1--9/2
#6 Gesu 6/1--9/1
#1 Manny Who 6/1--9/1
Race 6: 7 furlongs, The Joe O'Farrell Juvenile 150k for Filly 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#7 Sweetlalabye 3/1--9/2
#2 Rosebud's Ridge 7/2--5/1
#4 Joanie's Catch 9/2--7/1
#1 Winey Taylor 5/1--8/1
Race 7: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#3 Family Foundation 1/1--3/2
#9 Show the Way J 5/2--4/1
Race 8: 6 furlongs The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Pashito the Che 1/1--3/1
#6 Little Nick 5/2--4/1
Race 9: 8.5 furlongs The Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap 200k for Fillies and Mares 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#6 Jessica Is Back 6/5--9/5
#9 Sweet Repent 4/1--6/1
#5 Even Road 5/1--8/1
Race 10: 9 furlongs (turf) The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Soldier's Dancer 6/5--9/5
#3 Pickapocket 4/1--6/1
#5 Fearless Eagle 5/1--8/1
Race 11: 9 furlongs The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap 200k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#3 It's a Bird 6/5--9/5
#5 Dream Maestro 7/2--5/1
#7 Temo's Dream 6/1--9/1
Check out http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis of this race.
Race 12: 7 furlongs clm5000 for 3 year olds and up
#9 Tebow Go 8/5---5/2
#6 Diesel Power 3/1--9/2
#5 Sir Oso 9/2--7-1
The late pick 4 (races 7-10) looks very hittable which means no big payoff, but only a small investment required. I'm going to take a shot at hitting it cold with all my top picks. If you want spread out just a little then single the top choices in races 7 and 8 and the three contenders for 9 and 10 for only a $9 investment.
I'm Off
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Breeders' Cup Aftermath and Fair Grounds Trainer Angle
Well the cup has come and gone. As always, I am left breathless by these amazingly competitive races. I've got to start saving my pennies now so the I can attend next year's edition live at Churchill Downs.
Didn't do to bad as a handicapper on the Friday card as several top picks came home first including the 9.8-1 Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Had some straight winners on Saturday too, but tried to hard to find the upsets rather than let them come naturally. Have to remember that the game is not about picking winners but finding the overlay. I found that overlay in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where #3 contender Furthest Land brought home the bacon at a juicy 21.3-1. Find one of those and your day is made. I hope you played it
Hey if the Weasel helped you prosper in any way during the Cup, show him some love and let him know.
But enough about me. The Fair Grounds has reopened for the '09-'10 season. The Weasel loves the Fair Grounds. On the opening Saturday the Weasel found Air Combat going off at 15.6-1 in the first race and Weekend Pass @ 6.1-1 in the 5th. Sweet!!
Anyone who plays Calder Race Course has to be able to deal with wet weather as Summer is the rainy season here in sunny South Florida. The management tries to schedule races for the turf, but the reality is that many if not most of them are washed off onto the main track. Thus, it has finally occurred to the thick-headed Weasel that perhaps there are some trainers laying in wait for those "off the turf" races entering horses who have never done anything more than eat a blade of grass in the expectation of getting to run on the main track.
Then it occurs to the Weasel that if trainers do, indeed, enter horses into turf races actually intending to run them only if the race comes onto the main track, that some may be better at it than others. Ya think? If one were to go back through the results chart, one may be able to discern which trainers are lurking for "off the turf" races and which are just out for the exercise. Finally, it occurs to the Weasel that this is a novel angle that he has never read of anywhere before, so perhaps there may be an edge to be found here.
Well it's too late for Calder as the rainy season has past. However, thought the Weasel, the Fair Grounds sees it's fair share of rainy weather over the Winter. Perhaps we can use this angle for the upcoming meet. And so I bring to you the results of my hours of research for your perusal and, hopefully, profit.
I went through each day's chart for the '08-'09 season looking for races that were taken off the turf. The following spreadsheet insert shows the top trainers in terms of ROI. For, after all it is ROI that counts.
First let me show you the top "off the turf" trainers.
Granted, are number of trainers that do not have a significant number of races. However, surprising to me is the prescence of Bill Mott on the list. Mr. Mott being a well-known, successful trainer, I figured his entries would be over bet. This not the case. Mott has 5 wins in 16 off turf races for a 31% success rate and 21 cents earned for every federal reserve note (FRN) laid. Caveat about Mott, catch him early in the season as his win rate dropped as the season progressed. I expect as the weather warms up North so goes Mott's better horses.
But what I'm really looking for are those lesser known trainrs with positive results i.e. Richard Scherer at 98 cents per FRN. Patrick Mouton at 68 cents per FRN.
Be careful with Steve Asmussen. Winner of 6 out of 20 for a 30% hit rate, you take a slow road to the poor house losing 42 cent per FRN as his entries are typically underlaid at Fair Grounds. Other notable trainers to avoid Tom Amoss, Alvin Sider, Steve Margolis, Keith Bourgeois, Bret Calhoun, Sam Breaux, Mark Casse, Mark Frostad and a horde of others.
The list of trainers with negative ROI's and flat out no "off turf" wins is far longer than the short list above. When confronting races off the turf stick with Mott (early), Mouton, Scherer (Richard, not Merrill), and Stall and let's make some cash.
Check out my last entry (maybe they'll ask me back again some time) at www.casetherace.com this Saturday. Just missed with a live firster last out. Maybe I'll get lucky this time.
I'm Off
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Breeders' Cup Eve
Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.
As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.
One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .
Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.
As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.
Friday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1
The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1
Saturday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile
#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1
The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1
The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1
The Breeders' Cup Classic
#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1
Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.
Good Luck
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.
As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.
One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .
Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.
As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.
Friday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1
The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1
Saturday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile
#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1
The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1
The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1
The Breeders' Cup Classic
#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1
Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.
Good Luck
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Waiting For The Cup
I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.
I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.
In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.
My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.
Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.
Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.
Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream
Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old
#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy
Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old
#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday
Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old
#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen
Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up
#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade
Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings
Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old
#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger
Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races
#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China
See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis
Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster
Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds
#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side
Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel
1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3
Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet
Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward
#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate
Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.
#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty
Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge
That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races
I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.
In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.
My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.
Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.
Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.
Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream
Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old
#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy
Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old
#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday
Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old
#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen
Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up
#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade
Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings
Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old
#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger
Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races
#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China
See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis
Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster
Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds
#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side
Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel
1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3
Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet
Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward
#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate
Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.
#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty
Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge
That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races
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