Here's a poser for you. The first race Saturday at Gulfstream Park will pit 3 year old Maidens against their old brethren. Therefore the question, can 3 year olds compete with 4 year olds this time of year? Now, in case you're wondering, the older horses are spotting their juniors 8 pounds. But what to look for? Well this is going to be a time when saving all those results charts is going to help.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Friday, March 6, 2009
So Now What?
OK. So Magna Entertainment Corp. finally filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. We all knew it would happen, and I'm sure not breaking any news. So now what? What are the intentions of MI Developments, the apparent beneficiary of Magna's embarassment. MI played hardball with Magna with regards to extending due dates on loan payments. I don't know about you, but MI Developments doesn't sound like the type of company interested in running thoroughbred racing establishments. Can you say, year round racing at Calder Race Course?
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Public Handicapper February 28th
Once again your intrepid handicapper is back with another collection of SWAG's for the publichandicapper.com contest.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Hooky!
I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
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