Bettor To Be Lucky Than Good

Satuday supposedly saw record attendance at Gulfstream Park for opening day. I don't know how they can possibly know since they don't charge admission, and I didn't observe anyone with clicking counting devices as I entered. Perhaps they based it on the handle and an estimated dollars played per person. I can attest that the track was quite crowded, but because of the way they configured the complex, it always seems to be crowded.

Usually I like to play another track in addition to the one I'm at. The Fair Grounds in this case. However, due to the crowd, and the fact that my wife and son were with me, I decided after the first two in Louisianna that trying to play two tracks was going to be too hectic and probably detrimental to my bank roll. The next Saturday I go, like this week, I'll probably hang out in the "beach" area where it is not as crowded and I can have access to monitors for both the Fair Grounds and follow the Gulfstream action without having to totally abandon my wife and fight for a decent vantage point.

The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is not subtitled Adventures In Thoroughbred Handicapping for no reason so allow me to relate a little handicapping adventure from Saturday.

The 3rd race on the Gulfstream card Saturday was a 50k Claiming event for fillies and mares 4 years old and up on the Turf. As previously mentioned many times, I make my own odds lines on who I feel are the win contenders in a race and then place my bets accordingly.

In this race, I liked the 3 horse, Saint Knows at 3-1. Saint knows is a 6 year old who spent most of 2008 running in either high priced Alw n3x or minor stakes conditions, so I suppose you could say she was getting a little class relief for this race. In addition, she is 5 for 16 on grass and has won over the GP turf course.

My 2nd choice was #9 Cut For Luck at 7-2. Looking back at the results chart, I now see that Cut For Luck was disdained by the continuum at 21 to 1. I don't know how I missed that, but I think it may have had something to do with the hecticness and distractions of the day. CFL probably got little respect due to the fact that it had raced the summer over at Calder Race Course rather than some of the higher class race tracks. I liked the fact that this 5 year old liked to win being 5 for 16 on the grass and had recently beat a next out winner while running an OC25k/n2x indicating that she was currently in good form.

My 3rd choice was #6 Pay Wright who I made 9-2. This horse has come south from Aqueduct and another proven turf course winner. She had a nice freshing layoff since November 5th and had been working regularly and on the turf at the Palm Beach training facility. That last tidbit alone should've been enough for me to upgrade Pay Wright. I have been informed that the course at Palm Beach is very heavy and slow and that any horse training there is bound to have a conditioning edge when it comes down to race.

My 4th and final contender was the "4" horse Spirit Line. Spirit Line is a 4 year old coming off a 50k Claiming win at Churchill Downs on November 15th. Again another nice 6 week lay off with regular works at Gulfstream Park in December. Spirit Line is a trainee in Wesley Ward's barn and was being ridden by Elvis Trujillo. These two paired up at a 25% win rate at Calder's Tropical meet. Furthermore, I always have to respect a WW entry. I think he is one of those trainers that don't get a lot of attention like Pletcher and Asmussen, but just wins a lot of races. I made Spirit Line to be 5-1.

When the odds were first posted for the 3rd race, I noticed right away that the 4 horse was at 15-1. I didn't get too excited at that point figuring that the odds were just skewed early and would likely straighten themselves out as time went by. Again, I don't know how I missed the 9 horse, maybe I just stopped when I saw 15 to 1 on one of my contenders.

Well time went by and the odds on the 4 horse were not moving and I was beginning to salivate. Finally I couldn't take it any longer as the odds on the 4 horse began drifting up towards 18-1. I went to the windows with the intention of hammering on this horse. I played three different p3 tickets each involving the 4 horse. I placed a straight win bet on the 4 horse. I used a tactic I've learned from Mark Cramer and used the exacta as my place bet putting the 4 horse underneath my other 3 contenders.

I went back to my seat full of confidence and looked over my program one last time when, at last, I noticed why my 4 horse was being so ignored. The 4 horse was named Red Hot Bullet, not Spirit Line. Arrrgggh!

After the initial shock had worn off, all I could do was laugh at my folly and decide I needed to pull for the 4 horse. After all, on paper the 4 horse wasn't horrible, I just didn't think it could win this race. Red Hot Bullet is trained by Leroy Jolly who has only won at 5% on turf in recent times. RHB had run on Turf 3 times with one show placing for the effort. The strongest thing RHB had going for her was Alan Garcia who is one of the better turf jockeys around. So, ok, I'm pulling for the 4.

As the race went, I kept my eyes glued to the 4 who seemed to be in good postion mid-pack coming down the backstretch and, YES, was actually passing horses coming around the last turn and gaining on my 3rd choice Pay Wright.

As it happened Pay Wright managed to hold 1st and my number 4 finished 2nd. The $2 exacta paid $200.00. Imagine if the 9 horse Cut For Luck, the leader at the 3/4 pole and in the stretch had managed to hold on for 1st and RHB 2nd. What an exacta that would've been. My 4th selection the "5" horse Spirit Line was never a factor in the race and finished dead last.

I just had to laugh. Not only had I won $200.00 in the exacta, but thanks to Pay Wright winning, I was still alive in the Pick 3.

Sometimes its just better to be lucky than good.