Book Review: Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing

Welcome back to my little corner of the internet. I would have posted sooner. In fact I wasted several valuable hours writing an article last week about how the 11-1 Kiss The Kid was completely over looked in the Fort Lauderdale Handicap last week. Unfortunately, it sounded more like I was patting myself on the back for the excellent handicapping job I did in that race than the actual point I was trying to make, so I abandoned the project altogether.


This week I intend to review a relatively recent book release by Prentice Mannetter entitled Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing.

The first question to ask is, who is Prentice Mannetter and why would you buy a book from him purporting to tell you about how to win at horse racing? I'm afraid there is not much to reveal about that. The author doesn't write much about himself personally except to say he is not a "professional" horse player. That statement alone doesn't bother me as I think there are alot of "professional" horse players out there who seem to make lots of income by means other than wagering on horses. However many of these professionals do at least keep their sidelines in the realm of thoroughbred racing. The author does not elaborate on what his actual profession is. A Google search revealed nothing.

To the book itself. The author opens with a discussion of catalysts and changes. For those of you not familiar with what a catalyst actually is, it can be defined as an agent that facilitates change in another object without actually altering itself. Biologically, enzymes can be considered catalysts as they facilitate chemical reactions that are necessary for us to maintain our current state of animation.

Then the author lists and discusses various "catalysts" he believes will effect the outcome of a race. I use the term "catalysts" advisedly as I don't believe the author properly applies the definition, but this is mere semantics and, really, a minor quibble. What the author really describes are existing traits of the horse such as how fast can it run, or changes such as claims, class drops, equipment changes, etc. There is nothing really new here. In fact, the book started to remind me alot of "The One-Minute Handicapper" by Frank DiTondo, except the author didn't provide the neat charts and dry erase boards and markers.

Next the author takes us through and handicaps a card using the methodology. The first thing the author does is separate contenders from non-contenders using speed figures. Already now I have parted ways with the author. While it is my belief that speed figures can be useful, I don't feel that speed figures can simply be taken at face value as there are many factors in racing that can effect how fast a horse actually runs in a given race. Automatically eliminating horses because they don't meet a criteria such as speed figures can take you off of many live horses at long prices.

The author chooses to go through the Jan. 19, 2008 Fairgrounds card, wins a few, loses a few, and some get rained out. You, dear reader, can take that for what its worth as even the author admits that you've never seen any book writer demonstrate a losing day using his method. I have to say, after the first race or two, my eyes started to glaze over. I noted on the notes page that was conveniently provided that the author didn't seem to take into account the surface or track conditions that the figures were acquired on, nor did he mention the current condition of the Fair Grounds track. However I did note that the turf races had been moved to dirt possibly implying that these races were run on an off track. Long story short, the gist of the method seemed to be tallying up the changes, and the horses with the most changes are the choices. Somehow, that seems to be just a little too simplistic to handicap something as complex as a horse race.

Next the author takes us on a discussion of race shapes and how to use Quirin figures to determine the probable front runners, pressers, stalkers, and closers. He discusses various strategies to use depending on how the horses sort out based on the Q figs. (Side note: For those of you who use the DRF, Q figs are not provided and you have to calculate them yourselves. The Brisnet PP's do provide the Q figs.) The information provided in this chapter will be useful to new handicappers but doesn't reveal anything new to experienced handicappers who are already well familiar with the effects speed duels, or a loose on the lead horse can have on a race.

After the race shape interlude, its back to handicapping more races from other tracks for January 19 and more of the same. Eventually I just had to skip ahead to the next chapter where the author provides some advice on record keeping and capital preservation.

To the author's credit, the importance to record keeping and money management to the serious horseplayer are often given short shrift in many handicapping books. Of course, if one is not a serious horseplayer, why worry about long-term results at the races if you only go on Derby day. Unfortunately, here the author tells you that record keeping and capital preservation are important but not much more. In other words, he gives short shrift to the topic here, but does discuss it in more detail later.

Next there is the plug for the computer program at winmoneybetting.com. (which is currently not avaiable according to the web-site). The plug acts as a kind of intermission to part 2 of the book called Winning moves.

In this section of the book we are given betting strategies and advice. Told we need to find the right handicapping method best fitting our own personal strengths and weaknesses, and why people lose. Then we are treated "Handicapping General" which offers a potpourri of racing generalisms, and "Money Management" where the author gives a few more details on methods of capital preservation.

The author discusses in particular the Martingale system and why it is not a particularly good method of capital preservation. He discusses the pros and cons of using a simple percentage of your bank roll (which is my personal method due to its simplicity), and the advantages and disadvantages of the Kelly and 1/2 Kelly systems (which I've tried but gave up on because I was spending so much time trying to calculate what my proper bet would be I couldn't focus on anything else). And probably a few more that I can't really recall because by this time he was starting to get repetitive, and I was beginning to doze off from lack of interest.

In summary, this is not a book I can recommend. The organization of the book seems to be somewhat chaotic as the author flits about from topic to topic in a seemingly random manner. While the author does cover a broad swath of handicapping topics, he really doesn't offer anything new to the discussion, and these topics have already been covered better and in more detail by other authors. I can't even recommend the actual handicapping section for beginners because I think they will treat it as a mechanical, no-brainer method without bothering with the nuances that the author does try to elaborate on in some parts of the book.

If I have to give the book a rating in horsey terms, I'd have to say that it finished up the track and out of the money for me.

No Public Handicapper picks this week as I went to the Panthers game (hockey) last night. However, I can provide some insight on the G3 MisterProspector Hdcp from Gulfstream Park.

If you like the Horse for course angle the #1 Kelly's Landing 3 for 6 and 5 for 6 ITM @ GP should impress. But the 8 year old won only one race in 2008, and OC80kN1Y while not showing the form necessary to win against stakes graded racers. In addition, the rail post offers a slight disadvantage at the 6f distance. I think Kelly's Landing best days are behind him and Leparoux can't turn back time.

#2 Granizo makes North American debut and has won 6 of 7 in Brazil. But the Chalk Eating Weasel is not impressed by life-time earnings of 13k and change and will pass on this one.

#3 How's Your Halo (remember him) is a good hard working horse but all of his wins have come within the friendly confines of Calder Race Course. Now this race is only a 15 minute drive across town. How's Your Halo did finish 2nd to Benny the Bull, no shame there. But I don't think he is a legitimate win candidate here. Definitely could finish in the money though so don't ignore entirely.

#4 Black Seventeen is my Chalk Eating Huckleberry for this race. Everyone seems to focus on his subpar Breeder's cup performance and seem to forget about the G1 Vosburgh win the race before. Jeebus! There are alot of horses who have, shall we say, less than stellar running lines from the Breeder's Cup races, and some of them have since won! After taking a break for November and December Black Seventeen came back and finished 3rd in a G3 race at Santa Anita. Black Seventeen is the only horse Brian Koriner will have run at GP today or this season so far. Black Seventeen is the only horse C. L. Potts is riding today. I don't think they are making the trip for the waters, and they're not eligible for the Fountain of Youth (a little Casablanca and Florida humor for you there). I've seen this pattern before. Greg Gilchrist and A.T. Gryder made the same trip successfully for the G3 My Charmer Hdcp at Calder with Wild promises a month ago.
BS may be the favorite this race, but may not be as there are a couple of "Johnny come lately's" with flashy speed figures yet to be discussed.

#5 Ikigai is the Marty Wolfson entry. This speedy horse will most certainly go to the lead, but so far has not demonstrated the ability to maintain that speed beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. Still dangerous if he's learned to relax on the lead.

#6 He's So Chic is the Weasel's number 2 contender and is one of those flashy speed figure horses we've spoken of. He ran a blistering 108 (and its not his only triple digit effort) in a minor stakes finishing in 2nd. Jason Servis wins 27% of the time and Jose Lezcano has been having a very good meet so far. The only knock is lack of Graded Stakes experience. That may no longer be a knock after today.

#7 Rollers had 4 consecutive triple digit speed figures before faltering on a muddy Aqueduct track last out. Rollers is another making his Graded stakes debut, but he has won a pricey (250k) non-graded affair at Philadelphia. Barclay Tagg is 22% trainer for Graded Stakes, so he knows how to get them ready. In addition, I have a growing respect for Alan Garcia, so I'm expecting a good effort from Rollers as my #3 contender. Oh, I almost forgot to mention that my main knock against Rollers is that his best races seem to those that are restricted to NY state breds, so I will only use him at a high price as this is one of those little nuances that can have effects on speed figures (level of competition).

That's it for today. Good Luck