TVG reports a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas.
In the PH 8th race at Belmont Scolara was a winner for me at 5/2. However, the race was a pass with no overlays. Unfortunate since the exacta was in play as well.
In the PH/HANA Aristides G3 at Churchill Semaphore Man did not disappoint going off at a surprising, to me, 5-1 just got beat by Bold Start. Fortunately for me, Bold Start was my substitute runner for the scratched Cassoulet, and I get the exacta as a consolation prize.
The next 2 races are at Golden Gate Fields at 7:27 and Hollywood at 8:08. Stay tuned and see how the Weasel does.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Phandcapper and HANA Pool Races: May 30
Another Saturday and another installment on Public Handicapper and the HANA Pool race of the week.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Post Race Analysis for May 23
Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
PH and HANA Pool Picks: May 23
It's Saturday and that means time for another week of Stakes Race and Pool picks from the Chalk Eating Weasel.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Book Review: Handicapping The Wall Street Way: Picking Xtra Winners at the Track
Ah yes my friends. Today it is my pleasure to bring you a review of the book of one of our advertisers, Uberhorse.com. The book is written by Mark E. Ripple and the title is as shown in the header for this entry.
The general thesis of the book is that playing the horses is much the same as investing in the stock market. Particular with regards to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as an analogy to the wagering pool. The gist of EMH is that at any given moment the given price for a stock is at the proper level due to the vast amount of information known about the underlying asset the stock represents. The idea being that the ebb and flow between rational buyers and sellers establishes the true value for the stock.
The author makes the claim that betting pools behave similarly to the market in that there is a vast amount of information processed by rational players which is used to establish the proper odds for each contestant in the race. Therefore, at any given moment the odds for a given horse are a true reflection of that horses probability of winning the race. The author has dubbed this phenomenom the Efficient Pool Hypothesis (EPH).
Naturally, there are flaws in the EMH as well as the EPH and imbalances occur in both markets that the astute trader (player) should be able to take advantage of. Without going into all the reasons (greed and fear) that these imbalances occur, I am in general agreement with the author on this count.
Generally, in the markets and in the wagering pools, the crowd gets it right most of the time. In recent years in the stock market we've seen many manias and panics. These manias and panics are over-reactions of the crowd to certain pieces of information which is either favorable or unfavorable. The author gives several examples of how these imbalances may occur at the racetrack and suggests methods by which one may take advantage of these imbalances. The think I liked best about the suggestions are that they were simple, easy to follow, common sense ideas without a lot complicated or esoteric calculations that are impractical for most player and, in my opinion, of dubious value anyway.
The author talks a little about the psychology of betting. The subtitle of Chapter 2 is "The Zero Sum Game". I disagree with the author on this point. Because of the take-out, racing is actually a negative sum game. The track returns less to the bettors than they take in, its how they make their money. Here he makes some generalized observations about different types of players and the effects these different types may have on the betting pool. I really think this is probably one of the weaker sections of the book as the author makes several conjectures regarding player preferences which may or may not be so.
Most analogies are of limited value at some point, and here I think the author meets his Waterloo in comparing two and three year olds to penny stocks. I don't think anyone is thinking of Rachel Alexandra as a penny stock. Personally, I love betting 2 year old sprints because they are all about speed as two year olds just hit the track and go. They have yet to learn the finer points of racing and if you can find the one that will break well and carry his speed for 4 1/2 furlongs you've likely found the winner. But even noted author James Quinn warns against playing 3 year old maiden races saying they are too unpredictable, so I can't totally bust on the author for this part of the book. I'll just say that I didn't think this part of the book added much to the discussion and move on.
The author offers a little questionnaire to help the reader determine his risk profile. I think the questions are, for the most part good and perhaps useful to the novice just starting out. My personal question regarding this part of the book is how the author came up with these questions. If he developed them himself, then in what way is he qualified to come up with these questions? Perhaps he could answer that as a stock broker, part of his job was to assess the risk profile of potential clients. Or maybe, he collaborated with a qualified psychologist to arrive at these questions and the personality assessment based on the answers to the questions. Either answer, or perhaps another would satisfy me. It would just be nice to know. By the way, I fit the high risk profile.
After determining whether you are a high risk kind of guy or more conservative bettor, the author then offers potential strategies and angles one can use which fit the profile. Again, what I liked about these offerings for both the aggressive and conservative player is the simplicity of the methods and the clear straightforward manner in which the methodologies may be applied. I do have some basic disagreements some aspects of the approaches the author uses, especially those that would require me to carry a calculator to the track. But that is only to say that there is more than one way to skin a cat, not to disparage the methods the author proposes. There is my perpetual quibble that I would like to see some statistical documentation that these methods are actually profitable, but maybe that is asking too much.
The author offers a list of tracks that he suggests are good for either long shot or conservative players. I'm not sure about how accurate this chart is, particularly after the Uber chalky Saturday I spent at Calder on Saturday. And many of the races at Gulfstream with its emphasis on 3 year olds and horses coming of their late fall early winter layoffs can at times be quite inscrutable leading to frequent box car payoffs.
The author discusses money management. Good for him. More authors should discuss money management. Barry Meadows suggested using the Kelly Method to determine bet size and, for my money, this is the method that has always made the most sense except for the fatal flaw that it required me to use a calculator at the track. I found that I was spending most of my time figuring out bet sizes and not really enjoying myself. The author discusses progressive betting methods where the player bets more money on each successive race after a loss until the player finally wins. The problem is, if the player doesn't win soon enough, he goes bust. The author kind of hedges his position on progressive betting sort of saying he, "is not a big fan of progressive betting in general, but the Fibonacci sequence is certainly my favorite method....." I'm not quite sure if he's fer or agin it.
I did like his Dutching section and in fact I used that method in my Preakness bet. Unfortunately for me, for dutching to work, you still have to have the winner. I don't usually dutch, as a rule, but somtimes I find it a useful tool, particularly if I have two longshots in a race I feel good about. The section on dutching, if you are not familiar with the technique is very useful. Personally, I tend to be a flat bet wagerer although I will occasionally vary the size of my bet depending on odds, mood, or confidence in my handicapping of a particular race. The author states that flat betting does not take full advantage of the conservative betting methods he suggests, but then I am not a conservative better and will tend to put more money on longshots than my short priced overlays.
The last chapter, discussing finding value in exactas is very useful, particularly for new players. Unfortunately for me, I'd have to take a calculator with me again. For me, if at least one of my contenders is an overlay, then I'm good to go. I know that this is not always a reliable method for finding value in the exacta pool, but its close enough for me to work with. However, the author is technically correct and one should at least pay attention to the exacta payoffs to determine if the pay out is really worth the risk. I do wish that the author would've discussed value in more depth in other parts of the book.
In summary, while I do have some quibbles and disagreements with the author such as I have already discussed. I did find the book to be a worthwhile read. There is a saying, attributable to Benjamin Graham, I think,"Buy when there is blood in the streets." Or, to put it another way, when everyone is jumping on Smarty Jones or Big Brown in the Belmont, maybe its time to look for a little value elsewhere. I think the author gives a unique perspective and offers some good solid advice. If I ever find a book where I agree with everthing in it, I'm goin to go have my head examined. To me the great thing about racing is everyone is entitled to their opinions and beliefs and furthermore, they can put their money on it.
So in closing, buy the book. The price is reasonable and you definitely will learn something from it.
The general thesis of the book is that playing the horses is much the same as investing in the stock market. Particular with regards to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as an analogy to the wagering pool. The gist of EMH is that at any given moment the given price for a stock is at the proper level due to the vast amount of information known about the underlying asset the stock represents. The idea being that the ebb and flow between rational buyers and sellers establishes the true value for the stock.
The author makes the claim that betting pools behave similarly to the market in that there is a vast amount of information processed by rational players which is used to establish the proper odds for each contestant in the race. Therefore, at any given moment the odds for a given horse are a true reflection of that horses probability of winning the race. The author has dubbed this phenomenom the Efficient Pool Hypothesis (EPH).
Naturally, there are flaws in the EMH as well as the EPH and imbalances occur in both markets that the astute trader (player) should be able to take advantage of. Without going into all the reasons (greed and fear) that these imbalances occur, I am in general agreement with the author on this count.
Generally, in the markets and in the wagering pools, the crowd gets it right most of the time. In recent years in the stock market we've seen many manias and panics. These manias and panics are over-reactions of the crowd to certain pieces of information which is either favorable or unfavorable. The author gives several examples of how these imbalances may occur at the racetrack and suggests methods by which one may take advantage of these imbalances. The think I liked best about the suggestions are that they were simple, easy to follow, common sense ideas without a lot complicated or esoteric calculations that are impractical for most player and, in my opinion, of dubious value anyway.
The author talks a little about the psychology of betting. The subtitle of Chapter 2 is "The Zero Sum Game". I disagree with the author on this point. Because of the take-out, racing is actually a negative sum game. The track returns less to the bettors than they take in, its how they make their money. Here he makes some generalized observations about different types of players and the effects these different types may have on the betting pool. I really think this is probably one of the weaker sections of the book as the author makes several conjectures regarding player preferences which may or may not be so.
Most analogies are of limited value at some point, and here I think the author meets his Waterloo in comparing two and three year olds to penny stocks. I don't think anyone is thinking of Rachel Alexandra as a penny stock. Personally, I love betting 2 year old sprints because they are all about speed as two year olds just hit the track and go. They have yet to learn the finer points of racing and if you can find the one that will break well and carry his speed for 4 1/2 furlongs you've likely found the winner. But even noted author James Quinn warns against playing 3 year old maiden races saying they are too unpredictable, so I can't totally bust on the author for this part of the book. I'll just say that I didn't think this part of the book added much to the discussion and move on.
The author offers a little questionnaire to help the reader determine his risk profile. I think the questions are, for the most part good and perhaps useful to the novice just starting out. My personal question regarding this part of the book is how the author came up with these questions. If he developed them himself, then in what way is he qualified to come up with these questions? Perhaps he could answer that as a stock broker, part of his job was to assess the risk profile of potential clients. Or maybe, he collaborated with a qualified psychologist to arrive at these questions and the personality assessment based on the answers to the questions. Either answer, or perhaps another would satisfy me. It would just be nice to know. By the way, I fit the high risk profile.
After determining whether you are a high risk kind of guy or more conservative bettor, the author then offers potential strategies and angles one can use which fit the profile. Again, what I liked about these offerings for both the aggressive and conservative player is the simplicity of the methods and the clear straightforward manner in which the methodologies may be applied. I do have some basic disagreements some aspects of the approaches the author uses, especially those that would require me to carry a calculator to the track. But that is only to say that there is more than one way to skin a cat, not to disparage the methods the author proposes. There is my perpetual quibble that I would like to see some statistical documentation that these methods are actually profitable, but maybe that is asking too much.
The author offers a list of tracks that he suggests are good for either long shot or conservative players. I'm not sure about how accurate this chart is, particularly after the Uber chalky Saturday I spent at Calder on Saturday. And many of the races at Gulfstream with its emphasis on 3 year olds and horses coming of their late fall early winter layoffs can at times be quite inscrutable leading to frequent box car payoffs.
The author discusses money management. Good for him. More authors should discuss money management. Barry Meadows suggested using the Kelly Method to determine bet size and, for my money, this is the method that has always made the most sense except for the fatal flaw that it required me to use a calculator at the track. I found that I was spending most of my time figuring out bet sizes and not really enjoying myself. The author discusses progressive betting methods where the player bets more money on each successive race after a loss until the player finally wins. The problem is, if the player doesn't win soon enough, he goes bust. The author kind of hedges his position on progressive betting sort of saying he, "is not a big fan of progressive betting in general, but the Fibonacci sequence is certainly my favorite method....." I'm not quite sure if he's fer or agin it.
I did like his Dutching section and in fact I used that method in my Preakness bet. Unfortunately for me, for dutching to work, you still have to have the winner. I don't usually dutch, as a rule, but somtimes I find it a useful tool, particularly if I have two longshots in a race I feel good about. The section on dutching, if you are not familiar with the technique is very useful. Personally, I tend to be a flat bet wagerer although I will occasionally vary the size of my bet depending on odds, mood, or confidence in my handicapping of a particular race. The author states that flat betting does not take full advantage of the conservative betting methods he suggests, but then I am not a conservative better and will tend to put more money on longshots than my short priced overlays.
The last chapter, discussing finding value in exactas is very useful, particularly for new players. Unfortunately for me, I'd have to take a calculator with me again. For me, if at least one of my contenders is an overlay, then I'm good to go. I know that this is not always a reliable method for finding value in the exacta pool, but its close enough for me to work with. However, the author is technically correct and one should at least pay attention to the exacta payoffs to determine if the pay out is really worth the risk. I do wish that the author would've discussed value in more depth in other parts of the book.
In summary, while I do have some quibbles and disagreements with the author such as I have already discussed. I did find the book to be a worthwhile read. There is a saying, attributable to Benjamin Graham, I think,"Buy when there is blood in the streets." Or, to put it another way, when everyone is jumping on Smarty Jones or Big Brown in the Belmont, maybe its time to look for a little value elsewhere. I think the author gives a unique perspective and offers some good solid advice. If I ever find a book where I agree with everthing in it, I'm goin to go have my head examined. To me the great thing about racing is everyone is entitled to their opinions and beliefs and furthermore, they can put their money on it.
So in closing, buy the book. The price is reasonable and you definitely will learn something from it.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Preakness Post Mortem
A day late and $23.00 short (the total amount I played on the Preakness) I'm trying to figure out what to do with that little thingy to the left on the top with my picture. At first, I was just using my raw Public Handicapper Picks up. However, since I don't necessarily play my top choice in a race, I decided that wasn't an accurate representation of my results.
Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.
So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.
So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.
My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.
After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).
Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.
However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.
If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.
In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.
The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.
The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.
Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.
So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.
So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.
My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.
After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).
Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.
However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.
If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.
In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.
The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.
The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Pub Handicapper Picks for May 16
Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Black-Eyed Susan and Later Preakness Thoughts
The Black-Eyed Susan for 3yo Fillies. Well I just saw that Hooh Why my top choice is scratched. Matt Carruthers on TVG said we knew about this days ago, but I didn't. Well that sort of changes everything. #8 Don't Forget Gil was my 2nd choice, but Hooh Why was a major pace factor and I envisioned a scenario where Hooh Why and Casanova Move would hook up early and set the race up for Don't Forget Gil.
That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.
Here are the odds:
#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.
For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.
That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.
Here are the odds:
#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.
For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Early Preakness Thoughts
I spent my whole lunch hour today looking at the Preakness Stakes past performances and thinking about how to approach the race. As much as I looked forward to the Derby this is a far more interesting race to me.
The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.
I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.
Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?
Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.
However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.
Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.
Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.
Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.
Next time I'll tell who I like and why.
The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.
I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.
Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?
Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.
However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.
Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.
Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.
Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.
Next time I'll tell who I like and why.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
New Contest
Well, it's a new Public Handicappers contest and I have recovered from the shock of the stunning derby upset and am ready to offer up some new wisdom for this week's Public Handicapper races. I will also give you my thoughts on the HANA Get In The Pool race (Race 6 @ Prarie Meadows) if I get a chance later.
You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races
Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.
#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.
Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
?
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""NHMJuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu=\
The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.
#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1
Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.
Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's
#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1
#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out
And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up
#4 Unwritten
#1 He's So Chic
#5 Acting Zippy
Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.
I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.
And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.
You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races
Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.
#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.
Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
?
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""NHMJuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu=\
The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.
#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1
Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.
Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's
#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1
#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out
And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up
#4 Unwritten
#1 He's So Chic
#5 Acting Zippy
Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.
I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.
And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Somebody Pinch Me
Somebody wake me up. I think I just had a bad dream. A 50-1 shot just closed me out of all of my Derby bets! What? It wasn't a Dream!? Arrrrrgh!
Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.
It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week
Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.
It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week
Rachel Romps, Weasel Chomps
Even at 1.5 to 5 the Weasel couldn't resist the allure of that equine siren, Rachel Alexandra. My $20.00 wager netted $6.00. I couldn't help myself. It's like going to the laudromat and finding $6.00 wadded up in the drier. How can you just leave it there?
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
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